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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

The latest Euro Weeklies mean went absolutely bonkers for the week of 10/7-13. It has a whopping 340% of 2004-2023 averaged ACE or ~23! (see top image below). This is well over peak week climo of 16, which is 4 weeks earlier! This is easily the single highest week I could recall for any single week of Euro Weeklies for the season to date! The 2nd image shows where the bulk of the activity is expected: Gulf, N Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the W and C subtropical Atlantic.


Going back to 1991, I could find only two seasons with ACE anywhere close to 23 during Oct 7-13:

-2018’s ~24 due mainly to Leslie and Michael

-2016’s ~18 due to Matthew and Nicole

So, the latest Weeklies are calling for Oct 7-13 to be just about tied with 2018 for the most active since 1991. That’s very notable for a 100 member ensemble mean.

In addition the run’s mean for the week prior, 9/30-10/6 is at 180% of 20 year climo or 17. So, after Helene gets ACE and the E MDR get ACE up to ~75, an additional 40 is progged for the subsequent two weeks. That would bring ACE up to ~115 with the last half of Oct and Nov still left. The same run is progging another 15 for 10/14-27, which would get it to 130. If this were to verify closely, a 150ish total season ACE would not be far fetched considering the warmth of the Atlantic and the strengthening Niña.

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GaWx said:
The latest Euro Weeklies mean went absolutely bonkers for the week of 10/7-13. It has a whopping 340% of 2004-2023 averaged ACE or ~23! (see top image below). This is well over peak week climo of 16, which is 4 weeks earlier! This is easily the single highest week I could recall for any single week of Euro Weeklies for the season to date! The 2nd image shows where the bulk of the activity is expected: Gulf, N Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the W and C subtropical Atlantic.


Going back to 1991, I could find only two seasons with ACE anywhere close to 23 during Oct 7-13:

-2018’s ~24 due mainly to Leslie and Michael

-2016’s ~18 due to Matthew and Nicole

So, the latest Weeklies are calling for Oct 7-13 to be just about tied with 2018 for the most active since 1991. That’s very notable for a 100 member ensemble mean.

In addition the run’s mean for the week prior, 9/30-10/6 is at 180% of 20 year climo or 17. So, after Helene gets ACE and the E MDR get ACE up to ~75, an additional 40 is progged for the subsequent two weeks. That would bring ACE up to ~115 with the last half of Oct and Nov still left. The same run is progging another 15 for 10/14-27, which would get it to 130. If this were to verify closely, a 150ish total season ACE would not be far fetched considering the warmth of the Atlantic and the strengthening Niña.

View attachment 151723

View attachment 151724
Click to expand...
GFS goes bonkers

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