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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

The 12Z Euro is another that still has nothing of significance, far different from the GFS/CMC/Euro-AI.

The 12Z GEFS as Brent just posted favors FL including panhandle to some extent whereas the GEPS is about 50% FL Big Bend south and 50% E LA to AL.

For those not familiar: Operationals are of limited use this far out because they’re like throwing darts to a pretty far away dartboard. The ensemble members are also darts to a far away dartboard but there are a bunch of the darts being thrown at once to better give us tendencies/trends.
 
NoSnowATL said:
If a strong storm does happen the Big Bend area is the place. Like 9 people live there.
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Although, South Georgia has gotten hammered since 2018. I'm from Valdosta and my folks are there. It's been a storm every year. Like I said it doesn't have to be a cat 5 to flood the area, knock tres down, or no electricity for a couple of weeks.
 
Henry2326 said:
Although, South Georgia has gotten hammered since 2018. I'm from Valdosta and my folks are there. It's been a storm every year. Like I said it doesn't have to be a cat 5 to flood the area, knock tres down, or no electricity for a couple of weeks.
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It’s been a blessing here. I’ve been missed to my east and west. Looks like I’ll get missed to my east again.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro is another that still has nothing of significance, far different from the GFS/CMC/Euro-AI.

The 12Z GEFS as Brent just posted favors FL including panhandle to some extent whereas the GEPS is about 50% FL Big Bend south and 50% E LA to AL.

For those not familiar: Operationals are of limited use this far out because they’re like throwing darts to a pretty far away dartboard. The ensemble members are also darts to a far away dartboard but there are a bunch of the darts being thrown at once to better give us tendencies/trends.
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The euro has long been biased against general TC genesis, while the GFS is biased the other way. I would put my money on something happening.

This is typically when the western caribbean begins to spin things up - it makes sense climatologically. a new "will this be the storm that savages tampa" contender.

We don't really get cape verde action anymore, we only get sloppy seconds from florida these days, so this is one to watch.
 
ILMRoss said:
The euro has long been biased against general TC genesis, while the GFS is biased the other way. I would put my money on something happening.

This is typically when the western caribbean begins to spin things up - it makes sense climatologically. a new "will this be the storm that savages tampa" contender.

We don't really get cape verde action anymore, we only get sloppy seconds from florida these days, so this is one to watch.
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Yeah I'm pretty sure the Euro struggled with Francine too. That said it's still so far out I don't think any solution can be ruled out

Late September is usually a hotspot for this area too... Ian and Matthew recently... Both storms that ran near the east coast
 
ILMRoss said:
The euro has long been biased against general TC genesis, while the GFS is biased the other way. I would put my money on something happening.

This is typically when the western caribbean begins to spin things up - it makes sense climatologically. a new "will this be the storm that savages tampa" contender.

We don't really get cape verde action anymore, we only get sloppy seconds from florida these days, so this is one to watch.
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The east coast trof has been a many years pattern now.
 
The 12Z EPS has fwiw a whopping 20% (10) of its 50 members with a H landfalling in the FL Big Bend to Panhandle region. Plus there are a couple of TS hits there, too. That’s a strong signal for so far out. Expect it to change from run to run.
 
NHC is interested

An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 
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