Since it appears people place people on ignore starting this from a staff account for visibility
There's Francine and her cousin Gordon on the Bus and ETA in the Conus 16 days: Aug 30.
See Lex, you don't even need a computer Model: Satellite will do you just as well:
View attachment 149952
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-season-active-early-august-2024
This article is a little dated but it helps explain why tropical development has been so hard to come by in what should be and still might be perfect conditions for an above normal hurricane season. Cut the Saharan dust out of the equation and get the MJO phases to cooperate and then business might pick up in the Atlantic.
Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th:
As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42).
If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67).
One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.
Good Ole JB said early last week Labor Day weekend in SE could have another storm to deal with, we shall seeThere's Francine and her cousin Gordon on the Bus and ETA in the Conus 16 days: Aug 30.
See Lex, you don't even need a computer Model: Satellite will do you just as well:
View attachment 149952
JB says its possible for a storm to form off the coast in 10 days. Will need something to get the season moving
If the preseason forecasts had been around 13/7/3 then i would agree this is an active season. They were more like 24/12/6 so its inactive compared to forecasts. Webb is joining me and others now noticing the lack of Wave development.With Ernesto, the season continues to move with not only high ACE but also with a very high % of that ACE W of 60W. It currently is already near 85%. Assuming we get to near 65 as of Aug 20th, the % of ACE for season to date would still then be ~85% with 55 of 65 ACE W of 60W, which could rank as high as 5th highest:
Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W:
1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%)
2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%)
3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%)
4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%)
5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%)
1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W
The following graph shows how high 2024’s ACE was as of Aug 8th (in yellow):
View attachment 149987
Exactly what should be expected.
Too far north, you want that dark red around 15N or south of it. That's a look of fishy storms like last year.