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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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Colorado state is going with 13 named storms. Lots of uncertainty in their forecast. Very hot ocean Temps already but that's offset by the nino later.
The systems would have to be early in the season and homegrown and not off Africa. If anything it's going to a front loaded season. I think average to below average season.
 
Yup. I'm worried though about another rapidly strengthening system before landfall. Seems to be the trend with the insanely high SST anomalies.
If we deal with the same type of bumbling storms, I’d worry about that as well. I’m sure we will switch back into the long track/quick RIC storms eventually but how long will this cycle last is the question.
 
Watch the southern gulf or the Caribbean over the next 2-3 weeks putting the mean ridge center over the northern Gulf may entice something
 
Colorado state is going with 13 named storms. Lots of uncertainty in their forecast. Very hot ocean Temps already but that's offset by the nino later.
13 might end up being a good number. Just off the top of my head, I looked at 1997, 2009, and 2015… each years going into El Niño and the numbers were 8,9, and 11 respectively. We seem to be in a more active period right now so my guess would be 10-12 named storms. The big thing is that the season tends to shut off kind of early going into El Niño, so maybe no storms going into mid November like we’ve seen of late
 
13 might end up being a good number. Just off the top of my head, I looked at 1997, 2009, and 2015… each years going into El Niño and the numbers were 8,9, and 11 respectively. We seem to be in a more active period right now so my guess would be 10-12 named storms. The big thing is that the season tends to shut off kind of early going into El Niño, so maybe no storms going into mid November like we’ve seen of late
The El nino will be the key player and seemingly the biggest inhibitor of the season. If it's stronger then great slow season ahead hopefully. If it's weak or too late to arrive with the already above normal Temps then trouble could still be on the table.
 
Gfs wants to bring some Indian ocean shenanigans with potential big bad consequences. Brings a mid 930s into one of the most flood vulnerable regions on the planet.
 
Up to 110kts but the Jwtc has it weakening on approach now. Takes it from 120kts just prior to landfall to 100 kts at landfall.
 

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Up to 130kts and headed for landfall


Looks like its gonna do a little loop or stall in the last few frames....then again ugh...




This has the potential to kill tens if not hundreds of thousands of people.....a million people in low lying refugee camps with little to know real shelter....



 
It looks like the center got close to the massive refugee camps on the Bangladesh side of the border so this could end up being pretty bad those buildings are just tin roof huts basically....though one thing that maty mitigate this is they were on the "weak" side and the storm was rather compact and had been over or onshore for several hrs.....





 
Indian Ocean on a roll this year. This is Fabian a current cat 3
 

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