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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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Disturbance in the Gulf hitting us pretty good right now. 43MPH Gust reported at my station. Models weren't impressed by this line of convection, and NWS Miami only gave us a 10% chance of rain. I think the 18z GFS might have been on to something when it developed the caribbean system.

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GFS ensembles not really hitting on much, there is always that one ensemble though......looks like it crashes and burns after turning into NC after bombing off SC....this was 00Z I see.

gefs_2023-09-25-00Z_240_38.556_273.8_25.333_285.533_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
 
The offshore SE waters stay stormy for pretty much the entire run on most of the models.....shear seems to be able to keep it all shut down from becoming anything to worry about so far which is good as we really dont want another big rainmaker in eastern NC anytime soon.
 
Downeastnc said:
The offshore SE waters stay stormy for pretty much the entire run on most of the models.....shear seems to be able to keep it all shut down from becoming anything to worry about so far which is good as we really dont want another big rainmaker in eastern NC anytime soon.
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We're entering drought in NE GA and NW SC, so yeah, we need all the rain we can get here.
It's bone dry
 
Downeastnc said:
The GFS gets the energy formally know as Philippe off the SE., coast where it sits and spins itself out....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_41.png
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We don't NEED any more precip" here in SENC, Nor "downeast" I suspect.. I still have 2 FEET of water in my ditchline..
 
This is the type of thing to watch for. At the end of the gefs it's forming something deep in the carribbean and moving it north. It's fantasy land but it's where our attention will need to shift to as we finish the season
 

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Shaggy said:
This is the type of thing to watch for. At the end of the gefs it's forming something deep in the carribbean and moving it north. It's fantasy land but it's where our attention will need to shift to as we finish the season
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It doesn’t have my attention in fantasy land
 
1954 was a weak el nino year. As we watch Caribbean. Probably the strongest Hurricane to ever hit NC, was October 1954. The forward speed really brought the wind damage inland.
To me the October storms whether fully tropical or hybird, are always fun from wx hobbiest standpoint.

Gonna be a stellar Fall/Winter for Noreasters at the least.
 
Looks like the GFS has some life down the line. Gotta watch that squally weather getting hung up there this time of year

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png
 
Philippe looks like he is putting up a fight so far tonight with at least sustained storms firing over the center as sheared as it is...

In fact as soon as the NHC said this

After the previous advisory, there was a convective burst with cloud
tops as cold as -80C that formed near the circulation center. More
recently, this burst has been waning in intensity, and it would not
be surprising to see the vortex become exposed again shortly


He fired a new burst of of -80C storms and is in fact growing that area currently....the future still looks bleak but again its fun to watch these little storms fight off the shear that is suppose to kill them, I am rooting for the little guy.


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Philippe at 12Z

gefs_2023-09-26-12Z_144_27.737_282.183_11.533_306.629_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png


Philippe at 18Z

gefs_2023-09-26-18Z_144_27.737_282.183_11.533_306.629_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png



00Z---?
 
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