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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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GFS ends with a typical late season west carib storm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png
 
This GFS run had some of the rem energy of Ophelia getting together with a low that drifted up from Florida to form this and visit NC again....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh132-198.gif
 
Gefs also one member that had 2 smaller weaker systems come out of the carribbean cross southern Florida and hit NC back to back.
 

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You might not think so but the Euro is very interesting. At 240 it has what might be a developing low off the se coast and a cane that might have a hard time recurving, What you dont see is a weak storm that moves due west just north of the islands and washes out in the bahamas.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png


This high is pretty strong so will the cane move west like the previous storm did or turn north?

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_atl_64.png



that circle north of PR is the previous storm that moved due west and washed out

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_atl_44.png
 
accu35 said:
East coast lookout again on the 18z
Click to expand...

Almost the same look as Ophelia, except with more tropical moisture from the Gulf and Caribbean. Again, we see the models latching on to an barotropic storm thanks to upper level energy accumulating at the base of a negatively tilted trough within the Pacific Subtropical Jetstream.

Along with abundant tropical moisture due to record SSTs, the Southern Jet is providing some interesting El Nino weather events in Florida. During Ophelia's evolution, my area received several inches of rain from all the mid-level vortexes that passed through S. Florida, and the upper level environment produced a funnel cloud near Ft. Lauderdale. Areas received 20 minutes of 45-65MPH winds as the convection bowed. This is now the 4th funnel cloud of they year spotted within 5 miles of my house (Davie, Hollywood, Cooper City, and Pembroke Pines), which has also experienced 3 weak tornadoes. Ft. Lauderdale has received almost 88" of rain as of 4PM today. We are set to break 100" if these conditions continue into October.

Climate

www.weather.gov
 
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Whenever I see an image someone posts of a hurricane 50 miles from the SE coast that is not the last image in that model run, it's almost a 100% chance that it goes on to not hit the US in later frames. Don't even need to check the rest of the run.
 
Rain Cold said:
Whenever I see an image someone posts of a hurricane 50 miles from the SE coast that is not the last image in that model run, it's almost a 100% chance that it goes on to not hit the US in later frames. Don't even need to check the rest of the run.
Click to expand...
And right after i said this

"It ends up turning away but it brings back the west carib cane and takes it to SW FLA". Not alot of cane season left. The threats are still out there
 
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