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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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Hopefully the NHC classifies an Invest in the next few hours so we can start to see the hurricane models. The globals seem to be in fairly decent agreement on a track, but the strength is varying some. The NAM’s strength is just ridiculous and can be completely thrown out like always.
 
Chazwin said:
Hopefully the NHC classifies an Invest in the next few hours so we can start to see the hurricane models. The globals seem to be in fairly decent agreement on a track, but the strength is varying some. The NAM’s strength is just ridiculous and can be completely thrown out like always.
Click to expand...
How strong is the nam?
 
Looks like SE VA could be in for the worst flooding. 3 gauges now at major flooding


ucUFKxS.jpg
 
Euro continues to slowly get stronger. Down 2mb to 992 now. 993 is generally considered a minimal cat1


ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_us_18.png
 
Definitely seems to be a consensus with the globals of a low 990's storm hitting around Bogue Banks....the Hi Res are not far off from that either track wise, though they are 5-10 mb stronger in general outside the crazy ass Nam3k...

The key is all the models seem to be intensifying all the way to landfall, and I would not be surprised to see the land interaction actually help this thing out for the first 6 hrs or so onshore...the real question is what does the wind field look like and can it get the 925mb level to the surface because if it can then gust 50+ mph could happen well inland.
 
Pretty evident naked LLC forming on the vis loop right on 76W due east of Cape Canaveral....not sure if this is going to last or even be the main event

From NHC


low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain,
coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the
weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for
this system as soon as later this morning.
 
Downeastnc said:
Definitely seems to be a consensus with the globals of a low 990's storm hitting around Bogue Banks....the Hi Res are not far off from that either track wise, though they are 5-10 mb stronger in general outside the crazy ass Nam3k...

The key is all the models seem to be intensifying all the way to landfall, and I would not be surprised to see the land interaction actually help this thing out for the first 6 hrs or so onshore...the real question is what does the wind field look like and can it get the 925mb level to the surface because if it can then gust 50+ mph could happen well inland.
Click to expand...
water is warm right to the coast. 985-990 very possible
 
Downeastnc said:
Pretty evident naked LLC forming on the vis loop right on 76W due east of Cape Canaveral....not sure if this is going to last or even be the main event

From NHC


low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain,
coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the
weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for
this system as soon as later this morning.
Click to expand...
Euro has gone from 1006mb yesterday AM to 991mb today
 
Disburbance 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

two_atl_7d2.png
 
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