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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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The "blob" that will be the low this weekend flaring up nicely off the coast of Florida tonight, one potential fly in the ointment would be it getting its act together faster than modeled. The models don't close it off till late Thursday night into Friday. Shear will be a major issue for whatever tries to form at least short term.


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06Z GFS still inland but there has been a east shift to more over the sounds...

Still at 988 its the strongest run I have seen yet. First run to show gust into the 50's on the west side as well...

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lexxnchloe said:
Would be big gusts just to the west
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The real key is where and hell even if this thing consolidates a actual SLC, and how tropical it can get..the kind of wind field it can generate would be very dependent on that. If it stays extra or some kind of hybrid then expect a larger area of 30-40 mph gust over much of central and eastern NC, if it gets more like the GFS then the winds would be more near the center....the GFS has some 50ish gust over MBY but barely, the 925mb level ( 2100 ft ) has cane force winds at 06Z so it comes down to if those could get mixed down at all.

All of this assumes this is actually where and as strong as the last GFS run has it...as far as track goes that is going to depend a lot on if and where a actual SLC center forms and how tropical it is. If it is slower to develop like the Euro and Icon have then it might miss east and only really impact the OBX....the GFS is much faster with the center onshore by 8am Saturday.

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Downeastnc said:
The real key is where and hell even if this thing consolidates a actual SLC, and how tropical it can get..the kind of wind field it can generate would be very dependent on that. If it stays extra or some kind of hybrid then expect a larger area of 30-40 mph gust over much of central and eastern NC, if it gets more like the GFS then the winds would be more near the center....the GFS has some 50ish gust over MBY but barely, the 925mb level ( 2100 ft ) has cane force winds at 06Z so it comes down to if those could get mixed down at all.

All of this assumes this is actually where and as strong as the last GFS run has it...as far as track goes that is going to depend a lot on if and where a actual SLC center forms and how tropical it is. If it is slower to develop like the Euro and Icon have then it might miss east and only really impact the OBX....the GFS is much faster with the center onshore by 8am Saturday.

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F6eCKe_WEAACj1Q
 
accu35 said:
I might just chase this one since I have nothing else to chase
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LOL hoping it will come to me so I dont have too....if the GFS is right I am bullseye for best winds since its gonna be a weird little system, the 53 on the map Lex posted is MBY. Of course this means 100% that it will not happen that way as we only do boring weather around here.
 
LickWx said:
Let’s bring her home, surprise Cat 3 metwannabe come on have faith , gon spend more time in water than forecast and rapidly intensify . You and I deserve it
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Here is out cat3. GFS is swinging wildly going from east of bermuda to the central gom coast to east of bermeuda to here


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