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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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lexxnchloe said:
Is that from the gfs? If so it’s a bit stronger and east. I will be happy with a sub 1000mb low to end the season. Gets it down to 997. Trending stronger.
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It goes goes directly NW from there with a landfall near MB. From there it goes inland into the Piedmont before going north. Actually not too far off the CMC… just a landfall a bit further north.
 
Chazwin said:
It goes goes directly NW from there with a landfall near MB. From there it goes inland into the Piedmont before going north. Actually not too far off the CMC… just a landfall a bit further north.
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I would like to see it get down to 993mb which can be a minimal cane
 
Still not fully tropical but a lot more tracks and more green tracks on GEFS so its stronger, still would not be fully tropical but that could be bad given the high placement, lots of ocean overwash and IBX flooding with long E/NE fetch....

gefs_2023-09-18-18Z_264_37.81_276.4_27.153_288.754_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Still not fully tropical but a lot more tracks and more green tracks on GEFS so its stronger, still would not be fully tropical but that could be bad given the high placement, lots of ocean overwash and IBX flooding with long E/NE fetch....

gefs_2023-09-18-18Z_264_37.81_276.4_27.153_288.754_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
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That’s looks like my drawings in kindergarten. A lot of variables for 5-6 days
 
Downeastnc said:
Still not fully tropical but a lot more tracks and more green tracks on GEFS so its stronger, still would not be fully tropical but that could be bad given the high placement, lots of ocean overwash and IBX flooding with long E/NE fetch....

gefs_2023-09-18-18Z_264_37.81_276.4_27.153_288.754_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
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Yeah really the key is the placement of that high. It’s stout enough that it cuts off the escape OTS for anything that forms. Also that pressure gradient is going to be very tight… it’s the type of set up that could produce widespread tropical storm force winds gust well inland for the eastern 2/3rds of NC and of course significant coastal flooding… especially with the Harvest Moon closing in.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah really the key is the placement of that high. It’s stout enough that it cuts off the escape OTS for anything that forms. Also that pressure gradient is going to be very tight… it’s the type of set up that could produce widespread tropical storm force winds gust well inland for the eastern 2/3rds of NC and of course significant coastal flooding… especially with the Harvest Moon closing in.
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Euro only goes out to 90hrs but its a bit better defined and stronger.
 
Shaggy said:
Good call
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It’ll be interesting to see if the 6z GFS is just an outlier or the start of a trend. It’s the first model run we’ve seen pull the high east faster and it gives the storm an escape to move NE and scrapes Cape Hatteras and Cope Cod without making a landfall. Interestingly it’s also the strongest one we’ve seen on any model run so far bringing to pressure down to 986mb.
 
Ensembles still pretty all over the place...considering this is 4ish days aways at this point. Heck on most models the low does not even consolidate until Friday, this means the system has less than 24 hrs to be whatever its going to be before the models have it over NC, or just east...the real trend to look for is for the models to form this quicker giving it more time to organize assuming of course there is no east trend.

gefs_2023-09-19-06Z_150_38.321_277.539_27.737_295.15_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png


ecens_2023-09-19-00Z_156_38.321_277.539_27.737_295.15_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
 
Chazwin said:
It’ll be interesting to see if the 6z GFS is just an outlier or the start of a trend. It’s the first model run we’ve seen pull the high east faster and it gives the storm an escape to move NE and scrapes Cape Hatteras and Cope Cod without making a landfall. Interestingly it’s also the strongest one we’ve seen on any model run so far bringing to pressure down to 986mb.
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I think the Ukmet does this, it's been east last couple of runs and there are a few EPS members that are east
 
Whopping changes on the 12z GFS. There is a second chance for a strom to delevop off the se coast abd a najor hurricane south of DR

The major south of dr still recurves but its far more west than O6Z






gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_40.png




gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_41.png


The weekend low is weaker but more consolidated and makes landfall again

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_16.png
 
lexxnchloe said:
Whopping changes on the 12z GFS. There is a second chance for a strom to delevop off the se coast abd a najor hurricane south of DR

The major south of dr still recurves but its far more west than 0z







gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_40.png




The weekend low is weaker but more consolidated and makes landfall again

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_16.png
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The DR hurricane would have a better threat if that other lowndoesnt develop crushing the ridge.
 
18z gfs would been a pretty decent system E of US1 also interesting to see the 18z euro jump pretty significantly toward other modeling since it had been burying the low south for a while. gfs_mslp_wind_seus_fh66-90.gif
 
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