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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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18z gfs carbon copy of 12z for the weekend possible storm but it ends like this


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Brent said:
NHC is talking about it

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Looking at the 6z GFS as well as the 0z EURO. the system later this week looks like either a hybrid or even just a non-tropical low. The GFS has the center coming in just south of CHS while the heaviest convection is over NC, while the EURO is even more displaced than that. There is a fairly stout 1032 High just off the New England coast that sets up a tight pressure gradient, and would likely set up a rough weekend for potential coastal flooding for much of the coast from NC north to NJ…we will be very close to the full Harvest moon next weekend.
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the 6z GFS as well as the 0z EURO. the system later this week looks like either a hybrid or even just a non-tropical low. The GFS has the center coming in just south of CHS while the heaviest convection is over NC, while the EURO is even more displaced than that. There is a fairly stout 1032 High just off the New England coast that sets up a tight pressure gradient, and would likely set up a rough weekend for potential coastal flooding for much of the coast from NC north to NJ…we will be very close to the full Harvest moon next weekend.
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lexxnchloe said:
The GFS is a bit of an improvement as it stays over water longer

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But it’s still a hybrid system at best as is the ICON I just looked at. Though the ICON has a bit more convection around the center. My guess is at this point is that the center is just not going to be over water long enough to develop full tropical characteristics.
 
Chazwin said:
But it’s still a hybrid system at best as is the ICON I just looked at. Though the ICON has a bit more convection around the center. My guess is at this point is that the center is just not going to be over water long enough to develop full tropical characteristics.
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Thats the key. Stay near the gulf stream longer
 
NoSnowATL said:
Still a non tropical system either way. Most of the moisture would be well north of the spin so this would be a nice quick rain event for the mid Atlantic.
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Still would have to worry about some coastal flooding and gusty winds on the mid-Atlantic coast with that high to the north and the astronomical high tides
 
So it looks like there is fairly decent agreement that something is going to form off the coast along the stalled front layer this week, and that there is going to be a high to the north to block its escape. The models appear to be more organized closer to the center than what we’ve been seeing, but still looks to be a hybrid type system. The 12z CMC is probably the most interesting model as it shows a 994MB low moving inland near CHS and then taking a path about 50 miles or so to the west of Gaston’s path in 2004… it still show a 996mb low over the NC southern Piedmont.
 
Chazwin said:
So it looks like there is fairly decent agreement that something is going to form off the coast along the stalled front layer this week, and that there is going to be a high to the north to block its escape. The models appear to be more organized closer to the center than what we’ve been seeing, but still looks to be a hybrid type system. The 12z CMC is probably the most interesting model as it shows a 994MB low moving inland near CHS and then taking a path about 50 miles or so to the west of Gaston’s path in 2004… it still show a 996mb low over the NC southern Piedmont.
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Too bad the CMC is garbage.


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I mean this is at least a little interesting, bigvhigh to the north gonna make it windy, would not take much to get decent TS force winds over central and Eastern NC

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