• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

Not to open a can of worms here, but we running out of "I" names... Soon, there won't be any "I" names at all at this clip.

Oh no argument there. It's getting so bad there's been talk in other places about getting rid of I names

Even when we went Greek in 2020 the I name got retired!
 
12Z GFS still has something but develops it later and much further south, of course this is all voodoo/lala land lol
1652292043062.jpeg
 
I've been watching the tropical wave during this time frame for the last several days due to the rain potential, and the GFS has slowly trended towards this North Caribbean Wave/Central American Gyre dance that consolidates in the Caribbean instead of the East Pacific. The climate always favors the East PAC this time of year, but I think the GFS has been sensing better dynamics and upper level environment in the Western Caribbean. The 200-400Mb Q-Div, Stream Function Map illustrates a much better convective pattern over the Caribbean for tropical cyclone consolidation, and that area just so happens to be an area with rapidly warming SSTs that will be just to the SE of what remains of in the Gulf from our cut-off low that moves out over the next couple days. It creates one of those mini-troughs under a high pressure in the Gulf that keeps lower pressures in the Western Caribbean.

Needless to say, the May 19-24 period has my attention.

Look at the GIF from 84-150 Hours. You see the trough in the Gulf become the catalyst for convection and lower pressures in the West Caribbean with the convergence zone setting between it and the Upper Level Ridge, and then you see the excellent divergence at the end when the Ridge moves into the area. Later on another shortwave trough forms in the Gulf, and we get one of the early-season hybrid cyclone with a lopsided rain-shield. You can see the upper level energy digging under the system. On the Relative Humidity Map, the upper level energy is also accompanied by dry air that wraps around the system.
 

Attachments

  • gfs_upperforcing_watl_fh84-150.gif
    gfs_upperforcing_watl_fh84-150.gif
    1.5 MB · Views: 7
Last edited:
Back
Top