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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

I'm all for easy baking the ATL latent heat transfer mechanism at this stage for Dec/Jan warmista cores, ECMWF indicates we could be pushing the later half of Sept, past peak, and at best a Gulf spin-up. I don't see anything on the radar or beyond, while not a full blown bust the envelope is closing. It's 9/7 after all, and we are still Day 10 +. It only takes 1, the likelihood of many is closing once we hit end of month.
 
WeatherNC said:
I'm all for easy baking the ATL latent heat transfer mechanism at this stage for Dec/Jan warmista cores, ECMWF indicates we could be pushing the later half of Sept, past peak, and at best a Gulf spin-up. I don't see anything on the radar or beyond, while not a full blown bust the envelope is closing. It's 9/7 after all, and we are still Day 10 +. It only takes 1, the likelihood of many is closing once we hit end of month.
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Yeah it's gonna be increasingly hard to get something from the east make it across and the Western Gulf at least will start to shut down once the fronts start clearing
 
The front next week is at least worth keeping an eye on for something in close. I'd also watch how the 500mb ridge acts in the west Atlantic. If it doesn't get beat down it may direct a few waves in close in about 10-15 days or potentially help pull something out of the deep Caribbean
 
Where can I check out the current ACE?

And According to Wikipedia, where like tied for lowest record of Named activity.

1662996176215.png

I know it's only Sept. 12th, and we'll probably have another storm or two, but just highlighting how much the opposite this season has been so far compared to expectations.
 
smast16 said:
Where can I check out the current ACE?

And According to Wikipedia, where like tied for lowest record of Named activity.

View attachment 121365

I know it's only Sept. 12th, and we'll probably have another storm or two, but just highlighting how much the opposite this season has been so far compared to expectations.
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We are past peak and the next 14 days look like poop. This season was and is a record bust. This is why you should never listen to predictions. Go ask Taxas AM about that!
 
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smast16 said:
Where can I check out the current ACE?

And According to Wikipedia, where like tied for lowest record of Named activity.

View attachment 121365

I know it's only Sept. 12th, and we'll probably have another storm or two, but just highlighting how much the opposite this season has been so far compared to expectations.
Click to expand...
There is no way we’ll reach 17 named storms. I won’t be surprised if we don’t get into the double digits
 
May have to watch that look on the Euro. The GFS is being the GFS, but the Euro showing the same look aloft is how we get hit and possibly hit hard with the right timing under that ridge with the trough out west.
 
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