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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

Looks like the wave around 10N 45W is what gets into the Caribbean and potentially the gulf. Outflow from fiona will be an issue early as well as interaction with South America potentially but once it's in the central/western Caribbean it'll have a decent environment to get going
 
SD said:
Looks like the wave around 10N 45W is what gets into the Caribbean and potentially the gulf. Outflow from fiona will be an issue early as well as interaction with South America potentially but once it's in the central/western Caribbean it'll have a decent environment to get going
Click to expand...
This one is definitely the one to watch
 
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the system approaches the
Windward Islands toward the end of the week and moves over the
eastern Caribbean sea over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
The 12z GFS and ensemble support has this tropical feature organizing quickly.

goes16-ir-catl.gif


us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2022091912_78_1466_149.png
 
Under the assumption something gets going the window of landfall is abnormally large with a relatively fast pattern across the US leading to a flexing and retracting west atlantic ridge, the heat ridge anchored over Texas to the west, and the ultimate strength leading to how quickly a turn gets going out of the Caribbean. Cases could be made from Hatteras to probably Honduras
 
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