Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[Ollie Williams]

KNMI Climate Explorer tool actually provides a work around to this where you can download the entire daily z500 dataset for 1900-2010 in one fell swoop. Hope this helps!

ERA-20C Daily 500mb Height Anomalies (KNMI Climate Explorer)

Thanks for the site! There looks to be a lot of really useful resources on there.

For the plot I made, I used CERA-20C, which is really an ensemble of ERA-20C, allowing for more accuracy. Unless I missed something, it doesn't appear to be on here.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Didn't folks get sucked into the miller A GFS crap with the current system and then being sucked in again thinking it's gospel again. Can't make this stuff up.

Nope. Actually the exact opposite ?

 

[severestorm]

Nope. Actually the exact opposite ?View attachment 127630View attachment 127631

i'm not looking through a bunch of posts. But I can say is that imagining a lakes low not producing WAA and just producing CAA is fantasy. Also, the SW is in a aircraft dead zone with no soundings.

 

[Ross]

Nope. Actually the exact opposite ?View attachment 127630View attachment 127631

can't believe i just had to scroll through 12 miles of vertical screenshots from a phone with three minutes of battery life left

 

[Myfrotho704_]

can't believe i just had to scroll through 12 miles of vertical screenshots from a phone with three minutes of battery life left

I rarely don’t crop haha. But my battery is always low because I’m always on FaceTime

 

[SnowwxAtl]

About 30 minutes til the EURO have to say about the 12/27 potential.

 

[Arcc]

i'm not looking through a bunch of posts. But I can say is that imagining a lakes low not producing WAA and just producing CAA is fantasy. Also, the SW is in a aircraft dead zone with no soundings.

You may want to look through historical southern snow storms then.

 

[Chazwin]

i'm not looking through a bunch of posts. But I can say is that imagining a lakes low not producing WAA and just producing CAA is fantasy. Also, the SW is in a aircraft dead zone with no soundings.

Ok… I’m sorry but there have been a number of times that the mets that post on here have explained and shown how the GL low isn’t the death nail for winter storm chances in the southeast that some have claimed it to be.

 

[Heelyes]

So many would be better off reading more and posting less, even in whamby

 

[severestorm]

Ok… I’m sorry but there have been a number of times that the mets that post on here have explained and shown how the GL low isn’t the death nail for winter storm chances in the southeast that some have claimed it to be.

Didn't realize snow isn't a exothermic process which requires a steady flow of CAA to counter it.

 

[Arcc]

Didn't realize snow isn't a exothermic process which requires a steady flow of CAA to counter it.

You can get CAA with a low pressure over the lakes. In fact the weak lakes low usually means a PV lobe which actually injects cold air in the first place.

 

[severestorm]

You can get CAA with a low pressure over the lakes. In fact the weak lake low usually means a PV lobe which actually injects cold air in the first place.

Okay...sure thing. Well see how this shakes out next week.

 

[Chazwin]

You can get CAA with a low pressure over the lakes. In fact the weak lakes low usually means a PV lobe which actually injects cold air in the first place.

Thank you… this exactly what Webb has explained on here a number of times, but some just choose to ignore.

 

[Arcc]

Okay...sure thing. Well see how this shakes out next week.

Here is reality. I think a little snow fell on this day.

 

[severestorm]

Thank you… this exactly what Webb has explained on here a number of times, but some just choose to ignore.

Lots of cold air to work with....

 

[DadOfJax]

You can get CAA with a low pressure over the lakes. In fact the weak lakes low usually means a PV lobe which actually injects cold air in the first place.

At a much higher rate as well

 

[DadOfJax]

Lots of cold air to work with....

Clowns taking GFS 2m temps 10 days out at face value….priceless

 

[severestorm]

Clowns taking GFS 2m temps 10 days out at face value….priceless

Creating hopium of ULL's creating their own old air ... priceless.

 

[DadOfJax]

Creating hopium of ULL's creating their own old air ... priceless.

Do you even know the basic structure of an ULL or just demanding to be a ??

 

[RBR71]

I think @ForsythSnow mentioned last night, whamby doesn't mean free for all. Geez.... got a good mind to lock to whole place down. Debate is one thing but this is ridiculous

 

[KyloG]

Merry new year.

 

[severestorm]

Do you even know the basic structure of an ULL or just demanding to be a ??

I remember one time I wanted it to snow so badly from a ULL. Saw snow when the rates were heavy then went back to rain as rates lightened up. nothing stuck and it was miserable.

 

[Heelyes]

I remember one time I wanted it to snow so badly from a ULL. Saw snow when the rates were heavy then went back to rain as rates lightened up. nothing stuck and it was miserable.

I remember when Bobby Boucher showed up at halftime and the mud dogs won the bourbon bowl

 

[DadOfJax]

I remember one time I wanted it to snow so badly from a ULL. Saw snow when the rates were heavy then went back to rain as rates lightened up. nothing stuck and it was miserable.

Ok, thanks for clarifying the basis of your argument.

 

[SD]

This place sucks

 

[KyloG]

For the good news...pac low trying to retrograde west. So don't get used to all the warmth, we can't fail forever.

 

[Carolina Jones]

If it ain't gonna snow it might as well be sunny and warm.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

If it ain't gonna snow it might as well be sunny and warm.

No because that will bring all the bugs out.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Well, my mom just had it confirmed today that we all got COVID. While I haven't tested, I'm assuming I'd be positive, and I picked it up when I went to the hospital for a drug test a couple weeks ago for the job I'm starting next month as I started getting sick quickly after that.

It was a normal cold for me outside of that Saturday 9 days ago. I'm about to be over it (I'm about 95% there), but now I'm wondering if whether we even travel to La Fayette, GA this week for Christmas as my grandma is high risk.

(edit: banter is closed lol)

(edit2: jk, we probably travel anyway lol, I'll have to wait and see)

 

[BullCityWx]

Looks like the snow chance is later around the 28th instead of the 23 to 26.

The cutting edge analysis that we all need

 

[Carolina Jones]

The cutting edge analysis that we all need

Well, the thread title says the 23rd to 26th. Might need a change.

 

[KyloG]

2ft for Chicago on the Euro and GFS....snows for about 36 hours. Impressive.

 

[SnowNiner]

For the good news...pac low trying to retrograde west. So don't get used to all the warmth, we can't fail forever.

View attachment 127643

And probably a technical -NAO. I mean, it ties to raging se ridge. But whatever. ?

 

[SimeonNC]

I didn't wanna post this in the actual storm thread but I legit think Huntersville-Mooresville could get lake effect flurries Friday from LKN.

The water temp is in the 40s and 50s rn

 

[RollTide18]

Must be nice, closest we’ll get to a blizzard here are flurries and 10 mph winds

 

[KyloG]

Euro v/s GFS day 7....mildly interesting

 

[ColaSnow]

Well, my mom just had it confirmed today that we all got COVID. While I haven't tested, I'm assuming I'd be positive, and I picked it up when I went to the hospital for a drug test a couple weeks ago for the job I'm starting next month as I started getting sick quickly after that.

It was a normal cold for me outside of that Saturday 9 days ago. I'm about to be over it (I'm about 95% there), but now I'm wondering if whether we even travel to La Fayette, GA this week for Christmas as my grandma is high risk.

(edit: banter is closed lol)

(edit2: jk, we probably travel anyway lol, I'll have to wait and see)

Get well, my friend.

 

[weatherfide]

It looks like we are blanked on the EPS. No second or third systems put down any snow. On to the warmth!

 

[SnowwxAtl]

It looks like we are blanked on the EPS. No second or third systems put down any snow. On to the warmth!

7 days out. Really?

 

[Tarheel1]

Couldn’t be a more appropriately named winter storm!
We now have winter Storm Elliot!?