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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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rburrel2 said:
let me get this straight...

One run of the GFS at like 200hrs out shows an arctic bowling ball swinging to our south and dropping 15-20 inches on NC. While literally every other model didn't and never did. But we can spending 50 pages discussing the possibilities and hope for a "trend" of the anomalous arctic trough to cut off even more anomalously and getting us back in the game.

But hoping for a 20-30 mile trend north with frontogenic forcing on short range models when some of them are already showing an advisory event is lunacy? When we know from past events that further north/stronger precip shield on the northern boundary happens all the time. lolz
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Preach
 
I have a friend in Beach Park, Illinois and she’s about to get walloped with some snow!! If the current modeling holds true almost 2 feet of snow is possible! She knows she has to send pictures, (She’s already ready for summer lol), so that means she has to brave the elements for at least a few minutes!


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Let me guess, everyone thinks they are going to get snow from real cold air producing precip as it moves through? In and around Atlanta east, it will not amount to squat unless it pulls from moisture up from GOM. I don’t care which models say what. Flurries is all we will see.
 
Loganville Winter said:
Let me guess, everyone thinks they are going to get snow from real cold air producing precip as it moves through? In and around Atlanta east, it will not amount to squat unless it pulls from moisture up from GOM. I don’t care which models say what. Flurries is all we will see.
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I don't know about flurries, either. Lower level relative humidity is less than 60% at the 850 mb layer. Severe clear above that layer with incredibly dry air. That was my last hope, too. On to January, I suppose. Heavy frost here and 31 this morning.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Don’t let Nicky fool y’all. He’s still a top weenie. Behind those pessimistic posts, he’s thinking about any possible way it can snow. It pains him to right those pessimistic posts
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Hell I am the same way. People around my region hate my pessimism, but deep down I'm hoping for a miracle. I've just gotten better at not hyping things over the years.

You should have seen my alcohol-induced meltdowns regarding snow in my yard back in the day. All the bros have seen it and my bannings from other communities etc. @Rain Cold especially; ROFL.
 
Loganville Winter said:
Let me guess, everyone thinks they are going to get snow from real cold air producing precip as it moves through? In and around Atlanta east, it will not amount to squat unless it pulls from moisture up from GOM. I don’t care which models say what. Flurries is all we will see.
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Yep, you know the drill. We here in Loganville get to watch snow showers move from Cobb to Gwinnett and go poof 10 miles up 78 lol.

But, as an official ever-optimistic weenie, the flow for this one will be out of the west rather than NW so some mood flakes seem in play for our locale.
 
Yeah. Well I'm still disappointed in this "pattern change" we tracked the last 2 weeks. Its cold, but in my opinion its about 4 days of much below normal around for the holiday, in and out, and we torch by the end of the month. So much effort tracking for very little. Meh.

That out of the way, moving on to January pattern chasing, EMT, jet retraction chasing, Alaskan vortex killing, etc.
 
Still interested to see if any lake effect or even sound effect snow could occur. This is a very cold air mass, and it has happened before. Many things (of course) could stop this; one being the dryness of the air. Air temps will be below freezing over much of NC but dew points much lower (20+ degrees lower).

Here's the 2014 event:

Lake Effect Snow in North Carolina? It’s Happening Today! - North Carolina State Climate Office

When you hear the term "lake effect snow", you probably think of the Great Lakes phenomenon that gives cities like Buffalo, NY, several feet of snow each winter. But this morning, thanks to a quirk of our cold weather, lake effect snow is happening right here in North Carolina! Radar and surface...
climate.ncsu.edu climate.ncsu.edu

1671465160162.png
 
The amazing part of weather boards is if the possible storm on or around the 26th happens and hits the region with a decent to good snow , it will be remembered as “the perfect pattern” and will be forever enshrined in the “Hall of Fame” of can’t miss systems.
 
Hopefully, we get some thunder out of this...I will have my measuring stick and snow boots ready. ?

Screen Shot 2022-12-19 at 11.17.11 AM.png
 
Didn't folks get sucked into the miller A GFS crap with the current system and then being sucked in again thinking it's gospel again. Can't make this stuff up.
 
Ollie Williams said:
You all may appreciate this. This is what a perfect pattern looks like in the SE. negatively tilted Pacific trough, positively tilted Atlantic trough, ridge north of Alaska. 6in+ snow in every state but FL.
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What I'm curious to see is a SLPa &/or z500a composite of the big storms around here since 1901. You'd probably have to do some moving averages to the anomalies s.t. it's a more apples-apples comparison
 
Webberweather53 said:
What I'm curious to see is a SLPa &/or z500a composite of the big storms around here since 1901. You'd probably have to do some moving averages to the anomalies s.t. it's a more apples-apples comparison
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I would love to do that, but the only way I can grab the data is through ECMWF's website, which is wildly inefficient. You can only grab data one month at a time and can take hours or days to become available. It's not at the top of my priorities due to the length of time the undertaking would be, but something I will consider.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I would love to do that, but the only way I can grab the data is through ECMWF's website, which is wildly inefficient. You can only grab data one month at a time and can take hours or days to become available. It's not at the top of my priorities due to the length of time the undertaking would be, but something I will consider.
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KNMI Climate Explorer tool actually provides a work around to this where you can download the entire daily z500 dataset for 1900-2010 in one fell swoop. Hope this helps!

ERA-20C Daily 500mb Height Anomalies (KNMI Climate Explorer)
 
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