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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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I wouldn't worry about that Euro run. (Or any run a week out) Earlier in the week CPC noted modeling was being very inconsistent in the long range because it kept erroneously trying to send storms into blocking and it would throw off everything that happened after that. Its why we kept going from ice box to heat wave from run to run. I suspect the Euro is having that issue right now.
 
Grit, if your still around, can you show me the pretty precip map of frozen and rain for the big 23rd storm over the plains. Thanks
 
Rah has included snow in my forecast for Wed night and Thurs, very bullish for them..... #KOD
 
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metwannabe said:
Rah has included snow in my forecast for Wed night and Thurs, very bullish for them..... #KOD
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Same for my location. Here's why:

RAH:
Wednesday into Thursday a very deep and cold upper low will traverse
from the northern Rockies to the TN Valley, bringing an anomalously
cold airmass with it. This has been consistent for a while now in
the models, however what has been varying is the potential
development of a coastal low on Thursday. If this low develops and
moves northeast along the coast, with the cold airmass already in
place and the upper low approaching central NC, this could be our
first chance of wintry-type precipitation this season. Best chances
would be across the NW Piedmont, with lesser chances of wintry
precip across the southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Confidence
is now high enough to include wintry-precip in the gridded forecast,
but the details will change from now until then given how far out
this system is. Stay tuned for further details.
 
Back in the 1996 storm, I got almost 7" of sleet. Before that in 1987 there was this storm:
1671188531347.png
I've done a lot of searches and have not found any sleet totals higher (anywhere). I would love to see totals like this again.
 
Rain Cold said:
Make excuses.

Too much energy flying around.

Got to get the first system out of the way before we know what the next one will do.

Model doesn't do well with that much blocking.

It always loses the storm 8 days out only to bring it back 3 days out.

Energy not sampled well.

Model bias of holding energy back.

Model bias of being too progressive.

You know, things like that.
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Shaggy said:
We are days away from the pieces being sampled and really nailing down the forecast. We are also in that range where storms like to "disappear" before coming back in the 2-3 day range. I'm not sweating any run right now just watching the ensembles
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Lol
 
I have more Digital Snow from the GFS the past 10 days than all of last winter combined. Im just waiting for the American suite to fold.
 
Gotta sacrifice one to the cutter gods, to lay the groundwork for a big dog
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
First storm is not gonna work, second one is. We should know the mantra, cold first snow next
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It's rare we score big on the front end of a cold dump. What would make this time different? We haven't exactly established a nice blocked up NATL even with the -nao so you still have to go through the process
 
SD said:
It's rare we score big on the front end of a cold dump. What would make this time different? We haven't exactly established a nice blocked up NATL even with the -nao so you still have to go through the process
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Kinda surprised the NWS fell for it lol
 
I'm also really concerned about suppression if we miss out on the first storm. Just hoping the NAO block will do its thing and keep the 1st system from cutting.
 
I expect the rounds of disappointment and frustration today as the models do their thing as usual and minorly adjust only to do it again tomorrow. Hopefully wherever we settle in with the wester ridge is suitable and the cold blast doesn't just evaporate or the storm angle become so far east or west nobody wins.
 
DadOfJax said:
Way more than 1 positive out there for us in the South…maybe you should take a break.
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I’m sorry @DadOfJax, your list of contributions around here is short. It’s so short it doesn’t exist.

You must be auditioning for ringling brothers with that clown BS.
 
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