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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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It took me a minute to figure out where things are, but I finally found them. I know tons of people are ignored in here if you live in certain places, so ask, and if I'm around I'll post.

KPDK (Dekalb Peachtree airport)
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KRYY (Cobb County)

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Congratulations Mid Atlantic.
Don't worry we have the torch after this to worry about! Jump-off-a-cliff january's table setter!
gfs_T2m_us_60.png
 
Riding this model till the wheels fall off8323BD59-D7A8-44D7-AC99-6855710AA683.png
 
Guess it’s all over after the 18z? Everyone riding high after the 12z has slipped off the edge?. I’ll have to wait til Dec 2023 for another chance at a score.
 
I see the model archive thread has had some good GFS runs for the 22rd to 24th and the 26th to 27th, but don't see the maps anywhere in the December thread.
 
So when the GFS kills the storm chances tonight what do we do?
Make excuses.

Too much energy flying around.

Got to get the first system out of the way before we know what the next one will do.

Model doesn't do well with that much blocking.

It always loses the storm 8 days out only to bring it back 3 days out.

Energy not sampled well.

Model bias of holding energy back.

Model bias of being too progressive.

You know, things like that.
 
Make excuses.

Too much energy flying around.

Got to get the first system out of the way before we know what the next one will do.

Model doesn't do well with that much blocking.

It always loses the storm 8 days out only to bring it back 3 days out.

Energy not sampled well.

Model bias of holding energy back.

Model bias of being too progressive.

You know, things like that.
“We still have time to trend it back”
 
So when the GFS kills the storm chances tonight what do we do?
Remember that it’s the GFS and 5 or so days ago it was garbage and has not merit!

Also remember that it’s over 5 days out and no one has an f’n clue what’s gonna happen??‍♂️
 
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