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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

Gfs is going to be well east, it never really builds the ridge in over top

Edit, I guess it could bend back west or go into the NE but that doesn't seem likely

Edit 2 just disregard everything I've said here lol it's trying to take a hard left at 162
 
SD said:
Gfs is going to be well east, it never really builds the ridge in over top

Edit, I guess it could bend back west or go into the NE but that doesn't seem likely

Edit 2 just disregard everything I've said here lol it's trying to take a hard left at 162
Click to expand...
Yeah now trying to build the ridge over top, wetter days might be ahead
 
12Z GEFS has nothing too noteworthy near the SE US through day 10 though some members weakly hint at something in the area in about a week.

Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET no longer develops the AEW just coming off Africa.
 
Regarding the AEW just coming off Africa:
So, now the 12Z Euro fully gives in to the GFS and is no longer recurving it in the E Atlantic! Check out the huge difference vs 0Z:

0Z Euro still recurved it early:
vlgkAgy.png


The 12Z Euro says forget the early recurve, I'm going to do what the GFS has been doing from the start! On the 12Z run, it has it at 16N, 32W, vs 20N, 27W, on the 0Z run meaning 425 miles to the SW:

YdF6bRh.png
 
There's strong 12Z EPS support for the 12Z Euro storm, which is in green and is NOT the AEW just off Africa that I've been discussing. Let's see what % recurve safely:

74Ke1Qy.png
 
Here's the progression of the 12Z EPS from the above post's day 10 to both day 12 and day 15: this is about as strong support as there can be for one particular storm this far out from one run of the EPS. Whereas there are many in the process of a safe recurve, there are a decent number of those on the left side that would be potential threats to the SE US within a few days later:

Day 12:
CfHI4mo.png


Day 15:
l8imWhD.png
 
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Well, this is the time of year for hurricanes to hit NC. Guess we'll have to keep an eye on next week.
 
Great visual on how this powerful typhoon "felt" the island and changed course and went around it. Always amazing to see this type of phenomena happen. Unfortunately for that sparsely populated island it kept them in the eyewall instead of the calm of the eye.

 
I think the disturbance entering the GOM needs to be watched closely. Currently, a minor threat to Mexico and Texas, and Louisiana can't be ruled out either.
 
SD said:
Yeah the 12z euro tangled it up with Mexico, the 18z gfs was a little more impressive. Looks like a case where the Atlantic and pacific are fighting for dominance as well
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Not in any way to be confused with a comparison to IDA, but like IDA, much will depend on whether the northern portion of the vorticity becomes dominant which would tend to keep further offshore Mexico. By 48 hours, the environment looks pretty decent in the SW Gulf.
 
NHC has it at 80% in the 5-day now.

And now this:
"
The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface
trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these
features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the
Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico."

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

www.nhc.noaa.gov
 
GaWx said:
Here's the progression of the 12Z EPS from the above post's day 10 to both day 12 and day 15: this is about as strong support as there can be for one particular storm this far out from one run of the EPS. Whereas there are many in the process of a safe recurve, there are a decent number of those on the left side that would be potential threats to the SE US within a few days later:

Day 12:
CfHI4mo.png


Day 15:
l8imWhD.png
Click to expand...

The 18Z EPS at 144 is even more active and further west than the 12Z at 150:
5189434C-A98E-4567-877F-9C27737D8643.png
 
Models tonight definitely want to try and bring some mischief to the SE coast … positives? Moisture and temps … negatives? It could be a tropical system?
 
Nicholas? The wave off Africa is only 50/70

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level
trough. Upper-level winds over the western Gulf of Mexico are
expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the
coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development of this system
will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over
water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the
western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through
the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts
will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I think with ridge building to the top it will be shifting south toward GA/SC
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That’s very definite possibility. Seeing that ridge build in like what is shown just screams for an inland track into SC if there is a system there.
 
Chazwin said:
That’s very definite possibility. Seeing that ridge build in like what is shown just screams for an inland track into SC if there is a system there.
Click to expand...

Seems if anything the trend is east, first the ICON now the GFS which is already well east of its 06Z solution at 120 hrs.....at 140 its gonna need a pretty big NW movement to hit NC this go around,
 
Downeastnc said:
Seems if anything the trend is east, first the ICON now the GFS which is already well east of its 06Z solution at 120 hrs.....at 140 its gonna need a pretty big NW movement to hit NC this go around,
Click to expand...
I’m just speaking completely of the H5 look that’s been showing a pretty stout ridge to the north
 
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