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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

GaWx said:
Here's the progression of the 12Z EPS from the above post's day 10 to both day 12 and day 15: this is about as strong support as there can be for one particular storm this far out from one run of the EPS. Whereas there are many in the process of a safe recurve, there are a decent number of those on the left side that would be potential threats to the SE US within a few days later:

Day 12:
CfHI4mo.png


Day 15:
l8imWhD.png
Click to expand...

The 18Z EPS at 144 is even more active and further west than the 12Z at 150:
5189434C-A98E-4567-877F-9C27737D8643.png
 
Models tonight definitely want to try and bring some mischief to the SE coast … positives? Moisture and temps … negatives? It could be a tropical system?
 
Nicholas? The wave off Africa is only 50/70

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level
trough. Upper-level winds over the western Gulf of Mexico are
expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the
coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development of this system
will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over
water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the
western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through
the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts
will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Chazwin said:
That’s very definite possibility. Seeing that ridge build in like what is shown just screams for an inland track into SC if there is a system there.
Click to expand...

Seems if anything the trend is east, first the ICON now the GFS which is already well east of its 06Z solution at 120 hrs.....at 140 its gonna need a pretty big NW movement to hit NC this go around,
 
Downeastnc said:
Seems if anything the trend is east, first the ICON now the GFS which is already well east of its 06Z solution at 120 hrs.....at 140 its gonna need a pretty big NW movement to hit NC this go around,
Click to expand...
I’m just speaking completely of the H5 look that’s been showing a pretty stout ridge to the north
 
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