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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

So 18z GFS has back to back storms for NYC area!???6EF6903F-257C-4A95-9625-1B9FCDE38C51.pngFBBE2303-C82E-4C4C-926A-9193BDAAD159.png
 
Next weekend might be slightly interesting here in eastern NC depending on this Bahama wave, then there is this.....most of those are at or below the 60/20 aka Herberts Box benchmark for a SE hit though a OTS solution is also very possible at that location obviously....several big NC hits missed the islands to the north by a fair bit but still hit NC.......

us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2021091112_15845_481_240.png
 
Given the pattern that's set up, I lack faith in a strong CV storm storm making it all the way to the East Coast. I think any strong or major hurricane that threatens the US will form in the Caribbean or Gulf, as well as troughs that leave behind energy/waves in the Western Atlantic. I think pieces of energy from CV waves will likely run into Haiti or South and Central American territory/coastal waters, and then re-emerge over the western Caribbean or Gulf in conjunction with another weak wave or Upper level low. We've seen this happen 5 times already, but I think October will offer a greater opportunity.

At 240 hours, models are starting to hint at a storm in the Western Caribbean around where Ida formed. You can see it on the GEFS members that go past 240 hours, and at the end of 18z operational run. I can imagine a scenario like the ones illustrated below.

ac135ddc-e8bc-4b8f-a8e7-fb4c424213b9.gif
 
GFS has a big long track cane crossing the ATL this run looks like its the wave that comes off Africa well south around Monday, starts off real low but turns north and end after a little tease turn back NW it turns out.....


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The latest storm on record back to 1851 to have genesis east of 55W in the MDR and to later hit the CONUS is September 25th: storm #9 of 1893

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1893.png

Next latest E of 55W geneses were both on 9/21: Inez of 1966 and Lili of 2002. Then Gloria 9/16/1985 and Georges of 9/15/1998.

After 9/25, all geneses on record back to 1851 that later hit the CONUS were W of 55 W. So, when looking at model consensus with the lack of CV threats on them now, climo now says that the CONUS will very likely be safe from any genesis E of 55 W the rest of this season. So, potential remaining threatening genesis locations are mainly just E of or near the LAs, the Caribbean (mainly W half), the GOM, and the SW Atlantic north of the GAs to off the east coast.
 
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