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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Relax. The pattern isn't supposed to change until early January st the earliest. 384 hr models are terrible. The MJO is moving into phase 7 and 8 as soon as the typhoon gets out of the way. There's too much blocking to allow for a SE ridge. Models always struggle during pattern changes. They're just as likely to flip back colder next run. The Pacific plus blocking will shake everything up. Plus, the strat PV is taking a beating. And the CFS keeps periodically showing cold and snowy forecasts. It usually shows a warm solutions.

What'd I miss?

Edit: I knew I forgot one! Models aways flip flop during major pattern changes.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Relax. The pattern isn't supposed to change until early January st the earliest. 384 hr models are terrible. The MJO is moving into phase 7 and 8 as soon as the typhoon gets out of the way. There's too much blocking to allow for a SE ridge. Models always struggle during pattern changes. They're just as likely to flip back colder next run. The Pacific plus blocking will shake everything up. Plus, the strat PV is taking a beating. And the CFS keeps periodically showing cold and snowy forecasts. It usually shows a warm solutions.

What'd I miss?
Click to expand...
Tell me it's going to be ok
 
Rain Cold said:
Relax. The pattern isn't supposed to change until early January st the earliest. 384 hr models are terrible. The MJO is moving into phase 7 and 8 as soon as the typhoon gets out of the way. There's too much blocking to allow for a SE ridge. Models always struggle during pattern changes. They're just as likely to flip back colder next run. The Pacific plus blocking will shake everything up. Plus, the strat PV is taking a beating. And the CFS keeps periodically showing cold and snowy forecasts. It usually shows a warm solutions.

What'd I miss?

Edit: I knew I forgot one! Models aways flip flop during major pattern changes.
Click to expand...
Yep that's what I was getting at in the main thread. If we flip to the New Year and still can't see a pattern change showing up we may have reason to be worried. But right now any potential change is at the tail end of the run where models are horrendous. I didn't like the image fro posted from the op Euro and analyzed it verbatim even though I know its wrong. But I don't have anything else to do because this Panthers game is terrible lol
 
December 27- January 3rd are when I expect the rumblings to happen .. if we don’t have a good pattern shown within this time frame in a medium range set of hours like 180-270 .. then I’ll be worried … but again it’s late December we don’t ever get going usually until late January and February so I’m really not bugging out if even then we don’t see a good pattern but I will be quite sad and upset for no snow and also upset my call went wrong
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
December 27- January 3rd are when I expect the rumblings to happen .. if we don’t have a good pattern shown within this time frame in a medium range set of hours like 180-270 .. then I’ll be worried … but again it’s late December we don’t ever get going usually until late January and February so I’m really not bugging out if even then we don’t see a good pattern but I will be quite sad and upset for no snow and also upset my call went wrong
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At least your call wasn’t as bad as bamwx
 
Poimen said:
I mentioned back in early November that I was taking a five-week sabbatical in January and the first week of February. I've been holding off on reserving a place because I don't want to travel out west if it's going to turn cold/snowy in the east. I'm going to wait one more week, but right now I'm definitely leaning toward heading west.
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Head to North Dakota. They seem to be in a great spot. If the cold dumps west they still get the fringes of it and if it dumps east they're ground zero when it enters the lower 48. That's one of the only areas in the country that the 30 year average actually cooled it think.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The 3rd still has a chance. Or at least we may be able to see the change in medium range by then. But the first part of that window is toast lol
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My mentality is that the west has to have a true Arctic outbreak before we see one. Now sometimes it stays in the west but maybe it will slide east
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The Panthers aren't winning another game this year. And I'm not upset about it. This incompetent coaching staff needs to go and we need a good pick to draft a qb.
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Its horrible. This is the first time since the Jimmy Clausen year I haven't watched a Panthers game (except for games I missed because I had other commitments). Playing Nintendo Switch with my kid instead lol
 
Loganelliott99 said:
My mentality is that the west has to have a true Arctic outbreak before we see one. Now sometimes it stays in the west but maybe it will slide east
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Yeah it may. I can't imagine we roast in January like December with a -NAO and MJO in 7 and 8. That aggravating Aleutian ridge responsible for the -PNA seems to be related to the MJO hung in phase 6. As we get into Jan and phase 7 becomes favorable and we enter phase 8 which is inevitable it seems, it almost has to change. If that Aluetian ridge hangs tough in the wrong spot positively tilted through phase 8 and ruins this for us then someone way more knowledge than me will have to explain what went wrong ???
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I don't know man they're pretty bad. Their record is deceiving because they won their 1st 3. They've only won 2 games since Sept. If they play the Lions now they likely lose.
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The panthers have had a cake schedule too. They are probably a 2 win team with a harder schedule.
 
Lol at the Cardinals. You would have thought they would have learned when they played the Panthers not to overlook your opponent. Now they got boat raced by the Lions in a game where they could have clinched a playoff spot.
 
Brent said:
Hey they actually won today ???
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I just got off the phone with my mom (who was a huge Lions fan, but pretends not to be now), and she tells me if they beat the Falcons next Sunday (which is plausible, because they haven't been doing too well either), they would qualify for the Playoffs.

clown-world.gif
 
NorthDFWwx said:
I just got off the phone with my mom (who was a huge Lions fan, but pretends not to be now), and she tells me if they beat the Falcons next Sunday (which is plausible, because they haven't been doing too well either), they would qualify for the Playoffs.

clown-world.gif
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That image is crazy!
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Head to North Dakota. They seem to be in a great spot. If the cold dumps west they still get the fringes of it and if it dumps east they're ground zero when it enters the lower 48. That's one of the only areas in the country that the 30 year average actually cooled it think.
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I'm currently thinking about northern Wyoming or Montana--but ND/SD might work too.
 
Poimen said:
I'm currently thinking about northern Wyoming or Montana--but ND/SD might work too.
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The one problem you may run into is it being a very dry cold and limited moisture depending on the pattern. Seems like that part of the country gets their biggest snows in late fall/early winter and late winter into spring. In January in the heart of winter it can turn into just clippers with a couple inches of blowing snow. I think I mentioned before if it's just snow you want head to the lake belts. Even in a bad pattern you get fronts come through and the lake effect machine gets going afterwards.
 
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