• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

BullCityWx said:
I've had 1.25 twice, one three inch(two inches of sleet) event and one 2.5" storm.
Click to expand...
I got 1-1.5”ish from the sleetstorm, I think, around 2-2.5” from the all-snow storm a couple weeks back, and something like 0.5” from the storm last weekend (I think, I didn’t measure and it could’ve been closer to an inch for all I know). RDU, which is 15 miles ESE as the crow flies, is only at 2.7” so far (they registered just a T in the sleetstorm).
 
BullCityWx said:
Seeing the mental gymnastics that some of yall perform to convince yourself that every storm is destined to fail is hilarious.

Buncha great value widremanns.
Click to expand...
I mean, if you want to get philosophical, we could think along the lines of @GaWx : Technically what's going to happen is going to happen, and the models have no bearing on what will or will not be. So, if it in-fact rains on Sunday, then it was already destined to fail.
 
smast16 said:
I mean, if you want to get philosophical, we could think along the lines of @GaWx : Technically what's going to happen is going to happen, and the models have no bearing on what will or will not be. So, if it in-fact rains on Sunday, then it was already destined to fail.
Click to expand...
Agreement from me. We technically torture ourselves when it comes to Wintry weather outside 2 days chasing the models. Tropical, severe, and other types of common weather are much less stressful.
 
Texas gets model consistency on every run for a week and we get cutters and shredders, strong cad weak cad, maybe under modeled cad, amped, strung out. It’s so annoying.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
smast16 said:
I mean, if you want to get philosophical, we could think along the lines of @GaWx : Technically what's going to happen is going to happen, and the models have no bearing on what will or will not be. So, if it in-fact rains on Sunday, then it was already destined to fail.
Click to expand...

Indeed, essentially the models due to their inability to perfectly model the atmosphere often early on have solutions that look good but turn out to merely be fiction. We wouldn’t have a way to know that these solutions were fiction from the start though we could and do guess based on biases/their record. Of course, it can go the opposite way, too.

If there were an absolutely perfect model, we’d always know well in advance and there’d be no reason to have forecasting discussions since we’d already know what’s to come. In that way, it would be kind of boring.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, essentially the models due to their inability to perfectly model the atmosphere often early on have solutions that look good but turn out to merely be fiction. We wouldn’t have a way to know that these solutions were fiction from the start though we could guess based on biases/their record. Of course, it can go the opposite way, too.

If there were an absolutely perfect model, we’d always know well in advance and there’d be no reason to have forecasting discussions since we’d already know what’s to come. In that way, it would be kind of boring.
Click to expand...
Admittedly, I would prefer the latter. Good for humanity and safety/planning as a whole too.
 
Shawn said:
Admittedly, I would prefer the latter. Good for humanity and safety/planning as a whole too.
Click to expand...

Good point as I couldn’t argue with it being better for safety/planning. But it might not be so good for the meteorological profession as there’d in theory be less need for those who forecast if the machines were to be perfect.
 
GaWx said:
Good point as I couldn’t argue with it being better for safety/planning. But it might not be so good for the meteorological profession as there’d in theory be less need for those who forecast if the machines were to be perfect.
Click to expand...

Machine learning is going to be a big deal in the coming years, weather forecasting wise.
 
GaWx said:
Good point as I couldn’t argue with it being better for safety/planning. But it might not be so good for the meteorological profession as there’d in theory be less need for those who forecast if the machines were to be perfect.
Click to expand...
But if the Machines were perfect, then they'd find us flawed...

and we know how that turns out...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top