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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

smast16 said:
I mean, if you want to get philosophical, we could think along the lines of @GaWx : Technically what's going to happen is going to happen, and the models have no bearing on what will or will not be. So, if it in-fact rains on Sunday, then it was already destined to fail.
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If anyone is looking at the models as the solution past about hour 0 they are placing the issues on the wrong side of the monitor
 
SD said:
If anyone is looking at the models as the solution past about hour 0 they are placing the issues on the wrong side of the monitor
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In IT we call that a Pebcak error? (Problem Exists Between Chair And Keyboard)
 
  • Haha
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SD said:
If anyone is looking at the models as the solution past about hour 0 they are placing the issues on the wrong side of the monitor
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They can get pretty close up to about 18 hours out. But it takes 4 to 6 hours to run the program, so that gives you about 12 hours. The weather models are spot on 12 hours from hour zero. They get lost after that...some faster than others.
 
weatherfide said:
They can get pretty close up to about 18 hours out. But it takes 4 to 6 hours to run the program, so that gives you about 12 hours. The weather models are spot on 12 hours from hour zero. They get lost after that...some faster than others.
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Exactly anyone that gets mad at a model for not showing them getting snow or mad bc reality wasn't quite what the 120 hour navgem showed might want to go back to the drawing board and reassess.

Like you said by the time you see the data it's already changed
 
SD said:
Exactly anyone that gets mad at a model for not showing them getting snow or mad bc reality wasn't quite what the 120 hour navgem showed might want to go back to the drawing board and reassess.

Like you said by the time you see the data it's already changed
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And that's why this is fun! You never know what solutions are going to present with each model run. The reality might be in there, somewhere, and that's what makes it so captivating. The model solutions are never truly accurate but they are good enough to guide you into some distinct possibilities. "We" can do nothing to make a pattern better or worse or affect the reality at all. It's just fun watching the computer modeling spit out solutions - it is to me, anyway.
 
weatherfide said:
I actually think this one might lay down some significant snow accumulation in your area. Let's watch over the next few days and see what materializes.
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Hope so. The possibility is there I guess. Temps already seem very borderline verbatim and it has been difficult to get something to trend positive in a meaningful way here.
 
BullCityWx said:
That’s the only explanation I have for your interpretation of the 18z GFS ??‍♂️.

Also, this ain’t an airport so you don’t have to announce your departure.
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Deterring people who may actually be Mets with this sort of childish mean behavior is not good for this forum and I hope it’s dealt with. We want to be an inclusive environment for weenies and Mets .. there’s no need for putting people down for them explaining their opinions about things going on in the weather.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Deterring people who may actually be Mets with this sort of childish mean behavior is not good for this forum and I hope it’s dealt with. We want to be an inclusive environment for weenies and Mets .. there’s no need for putting people down for them explaining their opinions about things going on in the weather.
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Science doesn’t care about opinions, Nicky. That run was objectively colder by the maps I posted and he wants to post a map six hours post storm to say it’s warmer? He’s been condescending and I gave it back to him.

If he wanted to argue that the GFS was wrong, of course he is allowed to say that. You can’t pull a map out of your rear end 12 hours after the storm and claim a model run is “warm”.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I want another winter storm. I want more, North Carolina deserves this one, more then anybody else, climo is better here then many other parts of the SE, so Nc deserve more
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I want everyone to get another one, but Raleigh got the last one, so it's our turn dang it! And GSP got smoked the first one so CLT wins the "we're due" argument.
 
BullCityWx said:
Are you doing better now that youre in Troutman?
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A tick I think. First event this year I think I got .5 or an inch more than clt. 2 weeks ago Charlotte got more than me based on the orientation of the overrunning. So it canceled out, lol. Still patiently waiting for the hard core cutoff at 85 where Iredell scores over Mecklenburg.

Back in Dec 2018 I was in Mooresville and we got a healthy 5 inches and clt only got a couple. So, yeah there's been improvement but waiting to see consistency.
 
SnowNiner said:
A tick I think. First event this year I think I got .5 or an inch more than clt. 2 weeks ago Charlotte got more than me based on the orientation of the overrunning. So it canceled out, lol. Still patiently waiting for the hard core cutoff at 85 where Iredell scores over Mecklenburg.

Back in Dec 2018 I was in Mooresville and we got a healthy 5 inches and clt only got a couple. So, yeah there's been improvement but waiting to see consistency.
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Yeah, I can remember that sharp cutoff around Langtree. We had one event in 2018 where I watched the snow/sleet line dance between me and @wow for the entire night
 
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SnowNiner said:
I want everyone to get another one, but Raleigh got the last one, so it's our turn dang it! And GSP got smoked the first one so CLT wins the "we're due" argument.
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Raleigh got barely a dusting with the last storm and many areas around Charlotte got similar totals, If anything Raleigh is more due since we have less snow despite better climo (CLT is at around 200% of normal while RDU is at around 80% of normal)
 
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