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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

i still remember the early 2000’s surprise snow Valentine’s Day slamming Winston-Salem NC areas…was suppose to be rain at the end of the newscast there was a live feed of snow hitting the ground at 6:30pm. Wilkes got 0” that storm.
E420314E-660C-45C5-9195-7781AD792945.gif
 
LOL, Winston was "slammed" with almost 3 inches!!

Also, I don't remember this storm at all, even though I lived in Guilford then.
A little eye opening to get 3-7” NC snow storm unpredicted on a holiday. It was light rain moving in no warnings or advisories. Very special storm for many
 
LOL, Winston was "slammed" with almost 3 inches!!

Also, I don't remember this storm at all, even though I lived in Guilford then.
I remember it because it did come out of nowhere. I don’t think it was even a street sticker in Greensboro, though, so not much impact. BL temps were pretty marginal, I think. I was in high school at the time and I don’t think we even got out of school the next day.
 
A little eye opening to get 3-7” NC snow storm unpredicted on a holiday. It was light rain moving in no warnings or advisories. Very special storm for many

I remember it because it did come out of nowhere. I don’t think it was even a street sticker in Greensboro, though, so not much impact. BL temps were pretty marginal, I think. I was in high school at the time and I don’t think we even got out of school the next day.
Fair enough. I concede that no advisories on almost 3” is a surprise, and my initial reaction leaned too hard into smart ass territory. Birdman, please accept my apologies.
 
Fair enough. I concede that no advisories on almost 3” is a surprise, and my initial reaction leaned too hard into smart ass territory. Birdman, please accept my apologies.
I don’t think there were advisories because I remember my mom coming into my room and telling me it was snowing and I didn’t believe her, but then again I was in high school and hadn’t picked up weather as a hobby yet, so I may have not been paying attention. :)
 
I don’t think there were advisories because I remember my mom coming into my room and telling me it was snowing and I didn’t believe her, but then again I was in high school and hadn’t picked up weather as a hobby yet, so I maybe not been paying attention. :)
I probably don’t remember it much because I lived in south HP instead of north HP back then and apparently that made a bit of a difference based on the map.
 
I probably don’t remember it much because I lived in south HP instead of north HP back then and apparently that made a bit of a difference based on the map.
Gotcha. I was in North High Point pretty close to the GSO airport. Probably got about 2"ish IMBY from that one, but it was a pretty sharp cutoff with Oak Ridge, etc. getting much more, and South High Point getting basically nothing.
 
GFS, CMC, and Euro all very close tonight with deep diving bomb into the SE late next week.....one to watch

SB21TJR.gif
Oh god I’ll still be digging out!
 
Oooooof, 2 of the 3 NAMs barely touch CLT!?DF53F008-FD4A-4402-9AD4-9359C4049396.png33F13EC3-2F7D-4D20-9CA5-79740AA27F7E.pngF7468DF7-1875-462C-A21D-F706C118D2D7.png
 
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Uh oh. Threat ending for CAE. West expansion pulling back. Crap
 
Ice storm warning for Carolina Beach and Myrtle! Fun times! Up to .5” accretion and possibly ending as snow! Good times on the Strand
 
Just when the models start looking better and the professionals start beefing up their call maps, we start reversing course! Ugh!!
itll be fine rofl. the gfs says this for mby at 06z: (approaching 2 in an hr rates too)

Code:
220122/0000Z  18  03008KT  28.5F  SNOW   14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059   14:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.10  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220122/0100Z  19  03008KT  27.9F  SNOW   17:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084   16:1|  2.3|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.18  100|  0|  0
220122/0200Z  20  04007KT  27.6F  SNOW   15:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074   15:1|  3.4|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.26  100|  0|  0
220122/0300Z  21  02008KT  27.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076   14:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.33  100|  0|  0
220122/0400Z  22  02007KT  27.0F  SNOW   20:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098   15:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.43  100|  0|  0
220122/0500Z  23  04007KT  26.9F  SNOW   22:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078   17:1|  7.8|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
220122/0600Z  24  03007KT  26.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034   16:1|  8.1|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.54  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
 
i think things may be skewed on the gfs lulz. its almost like i hacked the model personally

lolz.PNG
 
its all on it's own with that 0.5+ qpf right over cae and lexington everything is 0.3 or even less
I live in Aiken right now but have to drive to Lexington for work tonight. 7 pm - 7 am. I’m hoping when I wake up I have a reason to say it’s not safe to come to work. Drive home tmrw morning prob won’t be safe
 
I live in Aiken right now but have to drive to Lexington for work tonight. 7 pm - 7 am. I’m hoping when I wake up I have a reason to say it’s not safe to come to work. Drive home tmrw morning prob won’t be safe

it prob wont be safe by 7pm to go there lol.
 
These models looked like tons of qpf a week ago and we all said this was going to be a much easier storm to forecast.

Yeah right!

This storm has been worse than the last to forecast and I still don't know id I see any snow or not with the 6z suite.
 
Could be picking up on a meso band.


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Yeah it's trying to ... i'd just assume hi-res would do better... and it's damn near impossible to know where those things go even then
 
Didn't they bump up the resolution?


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The FV3 core is higher reso than the old gfs i believe but nothing like 1-3km from what ive seen
 
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