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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Well you win some, you lose some on to the next. At least I'll get some work done and some sleep rest of the week
 
I wonder since this event for the weekend may only be affecting the Carolinas will the rest of the south who hasn’t seen accumulating snow get a chance
 
I seem to remember more weather educated folks than myself saying that the WAR always kept trending stronger when it got started. What is causing this to do the opposite and do we think the models are handling this correctly considering it is seemingly out of the ordinary?
 
I do not understand brad p at all.


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SD said:
Storm trending SE creating some room to spare when it bubbles back NW in the last 24 hours like they always do? I missed the memo of that being bad.
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Especially for you down in the Amazon.


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Storm trends NW last minute …

Everyone: well we knew that was coming! Fail!!!! Weenie!

Storm makes a SE trend with still 48 hours to go
.. it may go back NW with the NW trend last minute
Everyone: NO WAY WEENIE THIS THING IS TOAST .. SUPPRESSION!!!
 
This thing needed to start trending NW 2 days ago for my area to have a chance. This morning's model runs have put the proverbial tail rope on the tuna.
 
I’m now legitimately more worried about getting enough precip back this way than about sleet. ?
 
Anyone know what model brad p was showing? It was showing a lot of precip


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Nevermind. The GEFS is causing me to have second thoughts. It's enough of a signal for a bigger event that I have closed my seed catalog and I am now looking at generators and soup again.
 
Y’all are spoiled! If the only thing on the table was the analfrontal 1-2” of slop, most winters it would be ? worthy! Y’all greedy
 
Are there h500 vort charts for the individual GEFS members?
 
superjames1992 said:
I’m now legitimately more worried about getting enough precip back this way than about sleet. ?
Click to expand...

I keep forgetting who we are...the last thing we want is this to be hugging the coast. If we could draw it up at 60 hours we would be drawing what we are seeing now.
 
I don't have good maps, but as the images progress, there's still some members trying to do something either with a slower or second wave.. I highlighted my areas of concern versus the operational runs. These positions and strength greatly effect what people see weather wise, imo.


Edit: image 4 into 5 is my primary concern
 

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Worth the precip field looking a bit east at the moment, I suppose it’s time to start drawing some comparisons with January 2000? modernweenie
 
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