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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

For RDU the RGEM shows below freezing temps until about 19z on Sunday...in which about .4" of precip has fallen. Temps quickly rise after and another 1-1.5" of precip falls with temps in the 40F's. Sunday AM could be tricky driving but by mid/late afternoon things should be fine.

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I have some concerns about the front end here tbh. Models really rocket dews up at precip onset but temps don't really fall. I assume it's due to light precip but it's bothering me since any error in the modeling on the warm side extends the freezing rain window
 
I have some concerns about the front end here tbh. Models really rocket dews up at precip onset but temps don't really fall. I assume it's due to light precip but it's bothering me since any error in the modeling on the warm side extends the freezing rain window

True...front end is the only issue for us. Once mid-afternoon rolls around it's going to be heavy rain and in the 40's for us.
 
Question for someone smarter than me: At what point do we look at radar returns vs what's modeled (HRRR)?

I assume this will help with nowcasting, but the returns do look to have a larger precip shield.
Basically, whenever the models aren’t showing you what you want, you start to focus on radar returns and nowcasting.
 
I can tell you, based off experience as a young kid, and based off stories that I've been told, that it doesn't have to be below freezing by a lot for freezing rain to be an issue.

1/26/04, temps were around 32 for most of the ice storm and there were still issues. I think the roads were fine, but it was causing trees to fall, and it knocked out the power. They didn't cancel school, which was a mistake, so my dad had to come get me, and he had to get out of his car and walk because a tree fell. Left a bad taste in his mouth and he said after that that if there was a threat of winter weather, that I was staying home.

Pretty sure I've talked about this storm before. I know some have tried to correct me and say that this was in 2005, but no...this was in 2004 and I'm not sure if whether Atlanta got anything at all here.

2/12/14 was the storm where I was not at home, and I'm thankful that I wasn't. Temps were also around 30-32 during this storm and the power was out for my parents for a long time. They had to leave and stay at my grandparents' house due to that and my mom did not enjoy that.

This is the blog entry that my dad wrote about it that has pictures from the aftermath:


Having said that, I don't expect anything. 1/26/04 feels like it was the last time that CAD caused a surprise. A surprise at least for the school system.
 
I'm not worried about the precip it will be there. I'm more concerned about the warm nose. But GSP keeps is foothill peeps all snow for the moment I'll take there word over posters here they know this area well. Very much in the game still. No need for cliff divers and Debbie downers lol
 
When a weird appendage forms on rada and keeps back building, we enjoy! Wasn’t supposed to start till noon! Ground already white! Started snowing immediately, cause humidity was 98%! WinningCE8BF3C4-15F2-4374-8FA5-CC2A241DAA13.png
 
You know it’s a wrap when the WRF sisters start getting thrown around ?
Usually, but have seen this place lately? Everything is being thrown around, except that doncane experimental model..... anybody seen him
 
When a weird appendage forms on rada and keeps back building, we enjoy! Wasn’t supposed to start till noon! Ground already white! Started snowing immediately, cause humidity was 98%! Winning
Have any wicker furniture pics to share at this time?
 
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