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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

but the map in it's search for low pressure areas keep making the little L in the gulf and then its over Tennessee :(

south trend?
 
Hopefully the mountains do well with this one, it would be nice to see all of slopes get 100% of their terrain open after the disastrous December.
 
ForsythSnow said:
To have one storm possibly lined up in a couple days and another one possibly being sniffed out just a week or 10 days away has to be proof we're in a great pattern. This one might not work out for everyone this time, but just proves this doesn't have to be the storm.
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Yep., It's a relief that we don't have to rely on this upcoming storm to work out. The areas who are getting mostly rain or freezing rain this weekend will have atleast 2 more shots at getting snow/sleet event before the pattern begins to break down. The Euro looked quite interesting to say the least for both day 6/7 and day 9/10. Same with the Ukmet, CMC and the GEFS.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Yep., It's a relief that we don't have to rely on this upcoming storm to work out. The areas who are getting mostly rain or freezing rain this weekend will have atleast 2 more shots at getting snow/sleet event before the pattern begins to break down. The Euro looked quite interesting to say the least for both day 6/7 and day 9/10. Same with the Ukmet, CMC and the GEFS.
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I also remember how well this storm looked 7 days ago.
 
Rain Cold said:
There is a 100% chance of that storm moving almost due north from that spot. I'm not kidding either. Once the upper trough goes negative, it will probably pull it back to the NW for a time. Lots of rain incoming for central/eastern SC and NC.

Regardless, it's a very impressive setup. If that were to pan out, you'd see tremendous snowfall, strong winds, heavy rain, and probably severe weather, depending on the track.
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Can you at least wait until the current failure is over before you start ruining next weeks dreams too
 
metwannabe said:
Speaking of Mack's chair, that thing sweatin bullets

dvn.png
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I’m good! Fresh inch already! 1E0A6C5D-9257-40E3-9A3D-EFC42B301D84.jpeg41012796-BB8E-42CB-A378-36E46F0BE022.jpeg
 
metwannabe said:
Can you at least wait until the current failure is over before you start ruining next weeks dreams too
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Lol it's never too early get your hopes down! At any rate, it'll be a different solution at 0Z. Maybe the next run will show it 150 miles farther east. Come to papa haha
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol it's never too early get your hopes down! At any rate, it'll be a different solution at 0Z. Maybe the next run will show it 150 miles farther east. Come to papa haha
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I was actually experimenting with something and you know who must be asleep Lol
 
I’m excited for next weekend potential then this current storm
 
Don’t wanna clog the other thread but i am chasing this storm and would like some opinions. I’m coming from Florida and don’t wanna get too far north so I’m thinking NE Georgia and SW NC like Dahlonega to highlands. Anyone have thoughts?


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Dawgdaze22 said:
Don’t wanna clog the other thread but i am chasing this storm and would like some opinions. I’m coming from Florida and don’t wanna get too far north so I’m thinking NE Georgia and SW NC like Dahlonega to highlands. Anyone have thoughts?


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Well Dahlonega is 1400' in elevation while Highlands is 4100'. I would go higher.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Don’t wanna clog the other thread but i am chasing this storm and would like some opinions. I’m coming from Florida and don’t wanna get too far north so I’m thinking NE Georgia and SW NC like Dahlonega to highlands. Anyone have thoughts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Highlands or cashiers for sure
 
Getting worried we’re all about to get HRRR’d and it’s all a fantasy. Been burned by them before. However, in theory, I suppose the higher resolution should resolve the CAD better…
 
superjames1992 said:
Getting worried we’re all about to get HRRR’d and it’s all a fantasy. Been burned by them before. However, in theory, I suppose the higher resolution should resolve the CAD better…
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Just go with it. Just imagine we're getting hours and hours of pure snow the HRRR shows, then when all the sleet falls don't look too close, and you'll never know the difference.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Casual 7 inches from the first thump, now the death band on the backside ?
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the way to calculate the true amount one might get is to take the number the model is showing and divide by that same number, then subtract 1, and add T.

7/7=1
1-1=0
0+T=T

That is your math lesson in calculating snow totals for the Atlanta area.
 
J.C. said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the way to calculate the true amount one might get is to take the number the model is showing and divide by that same number, then subtract 1, and add T.

7/7=1
1-1=0
0+T=T

That is your math lesson in calculating snow totals for the Atlanta
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December 2017 turned me into a believer of heavy rates ?
 
Stormsfury said:
IF the wedge strength is being underplayed (like normal), continue to expect shifts south.. I still don't expect the primary low to cut thru the wedge (unless it stays on the wedge boundary)

Granted, southerly flow aloft will be ramping, which MAY have the SFC low try to ride along the coast...but with every depiction I've seen so far, the wedge boundary continues to reside offshore out towards the Western Wall of The Gulf Stream... That's where I'd expect a jump to occur or the primary to likely take it's path.

Guidance historically misjudges the erosion down in the Coastal Plain in SC.
Expect further downward adjustments on temps, track, and column crash with such potential heavy rates before latent heat processes can take over
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pulled me back in.gif
 
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