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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Lickwx said:
Your average chic fila lover:

- drives a mom car
- Favorite show is friends
- boring
- name is among top 10 most popular names in America
- think sushi is the best thing ever
- live in a neighborhood called green farm pine field meadow view
- average and ambitionless



Edit : chic fila is good but I aspire to not follow the crowd .
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Hey what's wrong with Friends ?
 
Lickwx said:
Your average chic fila lover:

- drives a mom car
- Favorite show is friends
- boring
- name is among top 10 most popular names in America
- think sushi is the best thing ever
- live in a neighborhood called green farm pine field meadow view
- average and ambitionless



Edit : chic fila is good but I aspire to not follow the crowd .
Click to expand...
One day you'll reach our level of boring, ambitionless, sushi eating, minivan driving adulthood.
 
Rain Cold said:
Relax. The pattern isn't supposed to change until early January st the earliest. 384 hr models are terrible. The MJO is moving into phase 7 and 8 as soon as the typhoon gets out of the way. There's too much blocking to allow for a SE ridge. Models always struggle during pattern changes. They're just as likely to flip back colder next run. The Pacific plus blocking will shake everything up. Plus, the strat PV is taking a beating. And the CFS keeps periodically showing cold and snowy forecasts. It usually shows a warm solutions.

What'd I miss?

Edit: I knew I forgot one! Models aways flip flop during major pattern changes.
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The block hasn’t been properly sampled yet!?
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Every other fast food restaurant not named Chick-Fil-A or In-N-Out (I know you guys aren't fortunate enough to have them as an option) suffers from horrible staffing/managememt.

The food they serve is constantly cold/old, or you're sitting in the line forever when there are no more than 3 cars in the drive-thru

This especially applies to Wendy's.
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Zaxbys to a tee
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm the biggest cold and snow weenie there is. I used to watch every weather cast on every channel whenever there was a chance for snow or ice. This was back when the national anthem came on at 12 and TV was over lol.

I know what a good pattern looks like. But I'm not seeing one yet. I hope it materializes. I can see how it could from here. But until we start seeing it get to around D10, it's all just guessing and hoping. That's not popular, I know. But it's true. You'll know we're making progress when the Rain Cold index turns positive. Right now, it's at -2.
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Personally, I don't think a prolonged colder pattern will settle in across the southeastern US anytime soon. There might be a colder period in early January from influence of the MJO and other positive features in the Pacific that indicate colder air transitioning east of the Rockies towards the eastern US.

I have a new proposed teleconnection that requires further research. The proposed teleconnection is the Equatorial and Subtropic Atlantic Oscillation (ESAO) The ESAO is reoccurring above normal SSTs and easterly winds between the tropical and subtropic Atlantic.

Above normal SSTs of the ESAO (positive phase) causes an up-welling of cold water from the deeper portions of the Atlantic that causes the thermocline to become flat. This causes the below normal SSTs in the Gulf, west central Atlantic and through the north Atlantic as the Gulf stream/current transports the colder SSTs. Weaker easterly winds cause a build up of above normal SSTs just off the western coast of Africa. The warmer SSTs become gradually colder towards the eastern Caribbean as the easterly winds lose momentum across the ESAO region.

Currently, the ESAO is in a slightly negative/netrual phase, this means that the SSTs of the ESAO are slightly above normal/netrual on average. With the ESAO in the negative/netrual phase, above normal SSTs will dominate the Gulf, west central Atlantic and the northern Atlantic.

The ESAO is different than the AMO. The AMO is variability of SSTs over the north Atlantic on the timescale of several decades. The variability of SSTs of the ESAO is on a timescale of weeks/months or even days and involves the SSTs between the tropical and subtropic Atlantic.

With the above normal SSTs in the Gulf, west and north Atlantic, higher geopotential heights would prevent the colder air from filtering in further to the southeastern US. The warmer SSTs cause an increase of heat into the stratosphere, causing higher geopotential heights. Over the coming weeks, the ESAO looks to remain in the slightly negative/netrual phase due to consistent easterly winds of the ESAO (but that can change) With that being said, at this time, expect to see weak ridging across the southeastern US and even eastern ridging into early Jan.
 

Yes. I did the same. Watching all weather from whatever station had it. Also waiting for the every 10 minute forecast on the radio while at work during lunch. You know, because we had no smartphones to look at. Lol.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
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