View attachment 103901
Decided to make my first probability map about SEEING snowfall. Not a accumulation map by no means. Just how confident I feel that we will get some accumulating snow. Pretty easy, if you're in the western NC mountains you're probably almost guaranteed to see accumulating snow at this point. I don't want to go higher than 60% since we are at day 5 but definitely feel it is very likely at this point. Along and north of 85 I think will see accumulations but I don't want to go above 40% right now. Definitely probably going to switch to sleet and ZR at some point while finishing with snow. Could easily get a really good swatch of 2-6" before a changeover to ice and then another changeover back to snow for a few more inches in this region. The next 2 regions I think we could see some front end and backend thumping snow but I am really worried more about the ice potential here.