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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Interesting , a storm that looks better for CLT/GSP/ and even parts of ATL than it does for here ? Hmmm didn’t I jokingly say there would be snowstorm that would center on GSP/CLT jokingly last year ? Hmmmmmmmmmm
 
westmc9th said:
You can tell how much the RDU crowd has been burned the last few years. Little to no confidence in anything positive happening for us on any thread/forum
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Tbf , I think we have done the best on here out of everyone aside from GSO the last few years . I mean we have been burned sure but we aren’t doing the worst .
 
I want to see a multitude of less amped solutions until the last possible second before the eventual rug pull.
 
Heelyes said:
Didn't know he was banned, won't matter he will still get a foot
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I hope your right. Selfishly. ⛄

On another note, seeing the first mentions of needing "better sampling" in the main thread before the models get more consistent, which I completely forgot about when tracking these 4+ range threats. How silly of me.

RAH mentions it could be Wednesday night before it comes ashore and data samples cause higher confidence. Tomorrow night?? Hoo boy, that's gonna feel like an eternity.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I hope your right. Selfishly. ⛄

On another note, seeing the first mentions of needing "better sampling" in the main thread before the models get more consistent, which I completely forgot about when tracking these 4+ range threats. How silly of me.

RAH mentions it could be Wednesday night before it comes ashore and data samples cause higher confidence. Tomorrow night?? Hoo boy, that's gonna feel like an eternity.
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Just stay up till after the storm . That’s what Nicky has been doing . Man has not slept in 2 days . Also you notice his grammar goes from a college level to a kindergartener on a sugar high level when he gets excited ?
 
Eastern third of NC is most likely out of this one. I should have known. Even with the HP and CAD moving in and trending stronger on the models, that GFS track inland would ruin it for us. Convince me otherwise.
 
SD said:
If we get 8 inches to a foot you can have my admin position
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mrdaddyman said:
Eastern third of NC is most likely out of this one. I should have known. Even with the HP and CAD moving in and trending stronger on the models, that GFS track inland would ruin it for us. Convince me otherwise.
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Ehh, western wake will be fine still. Probably good for a solid 3-4 inches . Now me , I’m prolly screwed and will get 2 inches and Nicky will tell me to “ be happy”. But wait you live in garner . Ooof nvm yeah man I’m sorry lol.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Eastern third of NC is most likely out of this one. I should have known. Even with the HP and CAD moving in and trending stronger on the models, that GFS track inland would ruin it for us. Convince me otherwise.
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I feel that way too a little but this one is different, that's some very strong CAD, very cold/dry temps, I just think the baroclinic zone will be just off the coast.
 
westmc9th said:
You can tell how much the RDU crowd has been burned the last few years. Little to no confidence in anything positive happening for us on any thread/forum
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First, I just want to say thanks to all of the members for the great model analysis and play by plays of what might occur for members like me who have a lot to learn when it comes to that sort of thing. There are lots of ways this can go sideways for RDU members, the storm could come inland instead of riding the coast during a classic winter event for our area, the 850s are borderline for the RDU area on some models and the 50/50 transfer might not go as planned. I have my fingers and toes crossed though and even if this weekend doesn't go as shown so far, the longer range pattern shows potential for several events after that. I just hope I get enough snow this time to build a snowman with my four year old granddaughter who loves snow and not a tree breaking ice fest like we had in 2002. Something like March 1980 when I was a teenager would be great.
 
DopplerWx said:
what is cool about these types of storms is it results in so many young kids turning into weather nerds. i know the crusher in 2000 really kick started my love of weather. nothing better than watching the weather channel in the days leading up to a storm and seeing my profile pic icon.

back on topic, really interested to see if we see models waffle a bit today into tomorrow as our storm is still over the pacific. usually see models lose these around this timeframe only to come back.
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It was the blizzard of 1899 that did it for me, those were the days
 
weather bubba said:
First, I just want to say thanks to all of the members for the great model analysis and play by plays of what might occur for members like me who have a lot to learn when it comes to that sort of thing. There are lots of ways this can go sideways for RDU members, the storm could come inland instead of riding the coast during a classic winter event for our area, the 850s are borderline for the RDU area on some models and the 50/50 transfer might not go as planned. I have my fingers and toes crossed though and even if this weekend doesn't go as shown so far, the longer range pattern shows potential for several events after that. I just hope I get enough snow this time to build a snowman with my four year old granddaughter who loves snow and not a tree breaking ice fest like we had in 2002. Something like March 1980 when I was a teenager would be great.
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I am feeling the same way. I just want to be able to allow my 4 year old son to play in the snow since he hasn't really had a chance to yet. The last time we had a decent snow fall, he was too young to do anything.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Eastern third of NC is most likely out of this one. I should have known. Even with the HP and CAD moving in and trending stronger on the models, that GFS track inland would ruin it for us. Convince me otherwise.
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ILM snuck in snow chances in their grids all the way to the coast in SE NC. I don't remember ever seeing that this early.

Anyway, if it can snow in Wilmington then Garner is golden right? I think that's a good sign. On the other hand, that might mean the track is too offshore. But at least we didn't lose it to BL issues. ?‍♂️
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Kiss of death. My wife is due any minute with our first and my nightmare was that the little guy would show up ahead of or during a potentially epic winter storm that I can't enjoy.
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You will likely have some additional chances in the next few weeks before we switch back to -pna dominant pattern.
 
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