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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

metwannabe said:
Doncane 2.0

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png
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Lol, there may not be a Doncane 2.0 but interesting times ahead though. It's still too early to know whether or not a storm system would produce within the suggested time frame, but I will be working on that over the next 3 days.
 
StormWatch said:
Lol, there may not be a Doncane 2.0 but interesting times ahead though. It's still too early to know whether or not a storm system would produce within the suggested time frame, but I will be working on that over the next 3 days.
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There's absolutely no reason to try and predict individual storm systems at 300 hr. You should only be looking at planetary-scale features on ensemble means at this range
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's absolutely no reason to try and predict individual storm systems at 300 hr. You should only be looking at planetary-scale features on ensemble means at this range
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Would only be keeping a watch on features that could trigger/produce a storm - not individual storm(s) on the OP models. Waiting 3 days till I initiate a storm prediction (depending on if any features that could trigger a storm) because in 3 days, the 17th - 22nd time frame would be within the 5-10 day range. Personally, I like to watch for storm signals/features prior of 5-7 days (prior to an official 5-7 day forecast) because I like to watch for consistency with features to help with the official 5-7 day forecast as that comes within time.
 
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