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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Am I the only one here that thought the 00z/06z suite was really great?

That SER is relatively weak, with cold air available to tap into. This is really not a bad pattern for overrunning potential as those systems typically involve a minimal SER.
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Ollie Williams said:
Am I the only one here that thought the 00z/06z suite was really great?

That SER is relatively weak, with cold air available to tap into. This is really not a bad pattern for overrunning potential as those systems typically involve a minimal SER.
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Looks great for me in New Mexico
 
smast16 said:
That was an interesting read. Thanks!
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That was an interesting read, in fact, that land would be interesting to metal detect (although would be extremely challenging) but to think of some of the artifacts from the "outlaw" days.
 
As much as I want to complain, I can't. Our area has had 15" of snow since 2017, though most of it was in 2017-18. We only had .5" last year, but it snowed 6 different days.

2017-18: 12"
2018-19: T
2019-20: 2.5"
2020-21: .5"
 
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Ollie Williams said:
Am I the only one here that thought the 00z/06z suite was really great?

That SER is relatively weak, with cold air available to tap into. This is really not a bad pattern for overrunning potential as those systems typically involve a minimal SER.
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Click to expand...
This is a twofold issue.

1, it's 384 hours out, so theres that working against us
2. it's 384 hours out, and the best we can get is "Cold is close to tap into..." and "minimal SER".

It's like when you're 16 and even in your fantasies she tells you "lets just be friends"
 
Broken024 said:
We didn't even get to ski. Got there the night before and then there was like 3 feet of snow in the morning and everything shut down. My dad said ---- it were going home.
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The unprecedented chance to get 3' of snow and you couldn't even enjoy it, that is awful.
 
bigstick10 said:
GA got totally screwed on this and the border with TN..
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Good thing too! That land is filled with mountains and waterfalls . Had Georgia got it , none of it would have been protected and we would have had Atlanta rich folks crawling in with neighborhoods everywhere same way you see the development crawling into the Georgia mountains . That region today is state parks and federal land .
 
Lickwx said:
Good thing too! That land is filled with mountains and waterfalls . Had Georgia got it , none of it would have been protected and we would have had Atlanta rich folks crawling in with neighborhoods everywhere same way you see the development crawling into the Georgia mountains . That region today is state parks and federal land .
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Tell that to Highlands, NC....
 
Lickwx said:
Good thing too! That land is filled with mountains and waterfalls . Had Georgia got it , none of it would have been protected and we would have had Atlanta rich folks crawling in with neighborhoods everywhere same way you see the development crawling into the Georgia mountains . That region today is state parks and federal land .
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You need to move out west where there's less people and the government owns a lot of land that's vacant. You'd like that.
 
Bham 99 said:
You need to move out west where there's less people and the government owns a lot of land that's vacant. You'd like that.
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That’s fine but I prefer a more conservation minded community . That doesn’t always mean the federal government owns all the property . Highlands NC which was brought up has a group known as the Highlands Conservancy which manages privately owned conserved land .
 
Lickwx said:
That’s fine but I prefer a more conservation minded community . That doesn’t always mean the federal government owns all the property . Highlands NC which was brought up has a group known as the Highlands Conservancy which manages privately owned conserved land .
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I hear Newark NJ is nice
 
Lickwx said:
That’s fine but I prefer a more conservation minded community . That doesn’t always mean the federal government owns all the property . Highlands NC which was brought up has a group known as the Highlands Conservancy which manages privately owned conserved land .
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But as you say it's all the rich people's fault but only rich people have the money to do such things.
 
Bham 99 said:
But as you say it's all the rich people's fault but only rich people have the money to do such things.
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Far from it . These are land trusts which rely on donations not rich individuals . Most of the land protected is family land anyways. We aren’t talking about brokens rich granddads 100 acre property he bought 20 years ago for a second home .
 
Right where we want it

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StormWatch said:
Personally, I don't think a prolonged colder pattern will settle in across the southeastern US anytime soon. There might be a colder period in early January from influence of the MJO and other positive features in the Pacific that indicate colder air transitioning east of the Rockies towards the eastern US.

I have a new proposed teleconnection that requires further research. The proposed teleconnection is the Equatorial and Subtropic Atlantic Oscillation (ESAO) The ESAO is reoccurring above normal SSTs and easterly winds between the tropical and subtropic Atlantic.

Above normal SSTs of the ESAO (positive phase) causes an up-welling of cold water from the deeper portions of the Atlantic that causes the thermocline to become flat. This causes the below normal SSTs in the Gulf, west central Atlantic and through the north Atlantic as the Gulf stream/current transports the colder SSTs. Weaker easterly winds cause a build up of above normal SSTs just off the western coast of Africa. The warmer SSTs become gradually colder towards the eastern Caribbean as the easterly winds lose momentum across the ESAO region.

Currently, the ESAO is in a slightly negative/netrual phase, this means that the SSTs of the ESAO are slightly above normal/netrual on average. With the ESAO in the negative/netrual phase, above normal SSTs will dominate the Gulf, west central Atlantic and the northern Atlantic.

The ESAO is different than the AMO. The AMO is variability of SSTs over the north Atlantic on the timescale of several decades. The variability of SSTs of the ESAO is on a timescale of weeks/months or even days and involves the SSTs between the tropical and subtropic Atlantic.

With the above normal SSTs in the Gulf, west and north Atlantic, higher geopotential heights would prevent the colder air from filtering in further to the southeastern US. The warmer SSTs cause an increase of heat into the stratosphere, causing higher geopotential heights. Over the coming weeks, the ESAO looks to remain in the slightly negative/netrual phase due to consistent easterly winds of the ESAO (but that can change) With that being said, at this time, expect to see weak ridging across the southeastern US and even eastern ridging into early Jan.
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I plan on publishing a write up today on this. I'll post a link to the article once I publish it.
 
metwannabe said:
Where is it getting published?
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It will be published on Medium (a writing publication site) Since I'm not an official meteorologist, the proposal of the ESAO probably won't be implemented with NOAA. Maybe I can get some help (on behalf) implementing it for it to be an official teleconnection.
 
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