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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Wondering why it’s been so quiet in here and just looked at the models. I can see why lol.
 
This will feel really nice. I think the GEFS is probably too warm by comparison, it's progressing the pattern a little too much east of the Rockies and usually has a weak/SE bias w/ cyclones near the east coast like the one late this week. The more wound up cyclone and trough axis on the ECMWF & EPS transports more cold from the plains into the SE US. The Canadian ensemble (while definitely cold biased) is also showing the more wound up solution like the ECMWF/EPS & makes that colder camp more believable than the GEFS/GFS. I think the EPS is the closest to reality of the major guidance atm & is in between the two cold & warm extremes presented on the GEPS & GEFS respectively.


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