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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

The Euro has Eta and Theta

Eta goes into Central America then crosses into the EPAC Theta forms at the end of the run same region
 
12Z Euro 5 day qpf: look at Central America :eek: :eek:

2gc5izd.png
 
Given the fact that we didn't get any rain from this storm, I welcome any tropical remnants into my area, provided it gives us rain. It won't be long and we will have a dry nw flow and moisture starved clippers, and no sign of rain. Fixed, it won't be long and the SE ridge keeps us warm and dry and all systems will ride up the Ohio Valley providing heavy rains and filling the Mississippi river banks.
 
A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser
Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for development of this
disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean
Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_atl_5d0 (4).png
 
This 240 hour 12Z EPS map shows many NE US surface highs of stronger than 1036 mb (in yellow). The GEFS is similar. IF this is accurate and IF there is a TC milling about off the SE US coast around 11/8, it would then be stuck and would possibly turn back NW or even W to the SE coast depending on the strength and extent of the ridge. Or if it were then over FL, it could very well turn back west into the Gulf!

q9PyMxl.png


Look at the upper ridging spaghetti showing many 588+ dm (in orange) slow moving/blocking 500 mb highs near the US E coast near the time there could be a TC below them:

bX0I0Aj.png



On the following Happy Hour GEFS 270 hour map, most of the TCs in and near FL are largely then blocked from recurving and in some cases are moving NW, W, or even WSW:

krVfFe6.png
 
GaWx said:
This 240 hour 12Z EPS map shows many NE US surface highs of stronger than 1036 mb (in yellow). The GEFS is similar. IF this is accurate and IF there is a TC milling about off the SE US coast around 11/8, it would then be stuck and would possibly turn back NW or even W to the SE coast depending on the strength and extent of the ridge. Or if it were then over FL, it could very well turn back west into the Gulf!

q9PyMxl.png


Look at the upper ridging spaghetti showing many 588+ dm (in orange) slow moving/blocking 500 mb highs near the US E coast near the time there could be a TC below them:

bX0I0Aj.png



On the following Happy Hour GEFS 270 hour map, most of the TCs in and near FL are largely then blocked from recurving and in some cases are moving NW, W, or even WSW:

krVfFe6.png
Click to expand...
Just wondering... has there ever been a tropical cyclone form where the disturbance is in the western Carribean that come up through the eastern Gulf or over Florida and then turned back west or NW?
 
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