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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

GaWx said:
Oh, and here is something else I just noticed. The 12Z EPS, which is anything but genesis happy, is about the most active run yet and has a whopping 10 of 51 (20%) members with a sub 1000 mb low at some point forming from this FOLLOWUP low, not the one being watched in the NHC TWO! Two members hit S FL as a H and one hits SE LA as a H. One of the ones that hits S FL then comes back for a 2nd H landfall at Canaveral and then a 3rd one on the Panhandle from the Gulf! Three hit MX after going into the Bay of Campeche. Also, at the end of the run, there are 2 of these 10 still lurking in the GOM. Things are suddenly getting a bit more interesting for the follow-up area:

PdQR9m9.png
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What are you smoking, no offense ots this time of year with lower gulf development, wish casting occurs too much on this
 
Your right, looking at hurricanes in October to hit mainland usa, in the gulf, based on models, which have done horribly, now and in the past this far out, climo should say enough, patterns in fall should say enough, just imo
 
ryanardo said:
What are you smoking, no offense ots this time of year with lower gulf development, wish casting occurs too much on this
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Hes doing his job which he's very good at. He always has alot of information that alot of us never realizes. I have alot respect for Larry "GaWx" as he keeps us posted and he does not wish cast anything on us thats harmful. Instead of calling him out on stuff try to learn from him.
 
The 0Z UKMET dropped TC genesis.

2. The 0Z GFS has nothing.

3. The 0Z GEFS is much less active than is the 18Z at the same time.

4. The 0Z CMC has a bit of something in the FL Straits but it soon dissipates in the same area.

In summary, bearish trends at 0Z so far. Anyone staying up for the King?
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z UKMET dropped TC genesis.

2. The 0Z GFS has nothing.

3. The 0Z GEFS is much less active than is the 18Z at the same time.

4. The 0Z CMC has a bit of something in the FL Straits but it soon dissipates in the same area.

In summary, bearish trends at 0Z so far. Anyone staying up for the King?
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I'll be up at work. Ill check out the op run.
 
GFS has the second system again at 06Z kind just bounces around in the western Caribbean before finally moving north towards Cuba at the end of the run....and for ----- and giggles it has one in the eastern Caribbean too cause why not.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png
 
The 6Z “King and his men”, i.e., the Euro and its ensembles, were very quiet. Interestingly, after that suddenly active 12Z EPS of yesterday (with 20% of its members sub 1000 mb for the follow up system, which is now in the SW Caribbean), each succeeding EPS has had less and less activity. Let’s see whether or not that quiet trend continues at 12Z.

The 6Z GEFS, though not as active as yesterday’s very active 18Z, is a good bit more active than the pretty quiet 0Z GEFS.

Again, the key area is now in the SW Caribbean.

We watch. We wait. We analyze. Because that’s what we do.
 
I know it is the low accuracy NAVGEM, but fwiw, the 6Z is the 3rd run in a row with development of the SW Car system but it is a little slower as it is only in W Cuba at the end (144) moving north:

9E6C2E74-A1A3-4E1B-B16A-D317B35C5119.png

And as mentioned, the 6Z GFS was slow but then went ape shoot with it in the NW Car and it lasted til the end of the run.

Signed, your favorite wishcaster ?
 
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1. The 0Z GEFS is very quiet with this.

2. 0Z UKMET hour 114 pre TC stage as it is moving NE:

EqwopJV.png



3. Here is the 0Z CMC hour 102, also at pre-TC stage as it moves NE:

Q0fwoWg.png


4. Here is the 0Z NAVGEM, showing for the 6th run in a row a surface low as it moves NE:

t8p5xRs.png


Moral of the story: bears watching just in case
 
The 12Z EPS has an impressive 30% of its 51 members with a TC forming in early Nov in the W Car!

pi1AAbu.png
 
So, with Zeta, we now got our 3rd W Car Oct TS genesis. On record back to 1851, this has occurred only two other times, 2005 and 1870!

Also, 1998, the year of Mitch, was also a similarly strong 1st year La Nina fwiw.
 
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