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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

GaWx said:
I looked at the storms that were in the Caribbean at some point and that had originated 9/21+ for analog seasons back to 1865 that were-1) during weak to moderate La Nina as of Sep and 2) that were preceded by weak to moderate El Nino the previous fall/winter

That gives me these ten: 1869, 1886, 1906, 1924, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1995, and 2007

1. 1869: storm 10 (aka "Saxby Gale") identified first as already a cat 2 just N of the Bahamas late 10/3 moving rapidly NNE; therefore can assume it likely originated in the Caribbean very late Sep as there was a TS there on 10/1; this hit the NE US as a cat 2 on 10/4

2. 1886: storm 10 (aka "TX/LA H of 1886") formed 10/7 in Caribbean and hit TX/LA border as a cat 3 on 10/12

3. 1906: storm 8 (aka "FL Keys and Miami H of 1906") formed 10/8 in Caribbean and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/18

4. 1924: storm 10 (aka "Cuba H of 1924") formed 10/13 in Caribbean, hit Cuba as a cat 5, and hit S FL as a cat 1 on 10/20

5. 1942: none

6. 1954: Hazel formed 10/5 E of the Lesser Antilles, went into the Caribbean, and hit SC/NC border as a cat 4 on 10/15

7. 1964: a) Hilda formed 9/28 in Caribbean, became a cat 4, and hit LA as a cat 2 on 10/3


b) Isbell formed 10/8 and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/14

8. 1970: none

9. 1995: Opal formed 9/27, became a cat 4, and hit FL Panhandle as a cat 3 on 10/4

10. 2007: none

-----------------------------

So, in summary::

- a whopping 8 CONUS H hits from storms that were previously in the Caribbean during 7 of the 10 analog seasons! Of these 8, 5 were majors. So, out of 10 seasons, half had a major H hit on CONUS.

- genesis date range: 9/27-10/13

- CONUS landfall date range 10/3-20 with these dates: 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/18. 10/20

- Landfall locations: S FL 3; N Gulf coast: 3; SC/NC: 1; NE US: 1


** Conclusion based on ENSO analogs and then when also considering how warm the Caribbean is:


Likely (above average chance) CONUS H (quite possibly major) landfall 10/3-20 with highest chance S FL or N Gulf coast. The most concerning geneses would be in or just east of the Caribbean during 9/27-10/13.

Please don't shoot the messenger!
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Back on Tue evening when I first was analyzing ENSO based analogs for potential Oct CONUS trouble, there had not yet been any GFS runs showing a TC in the W Caribbean. Part of the reason was that the runs ended before the most prime timeframe for genesis per analogs. However, since then as we’ve gotten further out in time in the forecast well into early Oct, a respectable 8 of 20 GFS (and 4 of 18 Para GFS) runs have shown it. When I say that, I mean they showed a full fledged TC/strong low. Additional runs like the 18Z GFS just run have had weaker lows. Plus, most GEFS and para GEFS runs this weekend, including the 18Z runs just out, have been anywhere from somewhat to quite active late in their runs in the W Caribbean and nearby. So, being that I had already become concerned based merely on analogs, I’m naturally even more concerned than I was when I last posted on this Friday afternoon as decent model support seems to now be there. I have yet to see much on the EPS for then, but it hasn’t exactly been stellar on picking up on geneses that far out in time. I’ll be looking to see if the EPS starts to get more active late in their upcoming runs.

I’m fully aware of the history of the GFS to have fake W Caribbean TCs as I’ve often criticized it for that, myself. But I think this time it may be into something since it is backing the ENSO based analogs (current weak to moderate La Niña following a weak to moderate El Niño). Early to mid Oct certainly bears watching and even more than in most seasons.

By the way, check out late in the brand new Happy Hour Para GEFS 31 member run;

BC1B0615-3201-4023-87A4-D0E9045962E5.png
 
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And here's the Happy Hour GEFS. It looks like it may have imbibed a little bit:

yCWRhb8.png
 
GaWx said:
This 51 member 12Z EPS signal is MUCH weaker than that of the GEFS and para-GEFS in the W Car.. But it has had trouble sniffing out threats.
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Directionally......I should have said. With the lack of accuracy with intensity these models might as well be 100 days out.
 
GaWx said:
0Z para GEFS (31 members in it) looks even more ominous than the Happy Hour: :eek:

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Guess we better enjoy the relative break this next week lol(I'm not totally convinced it'll even be a break)

A major Florida hit is about the only thing missing from this season...

Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Bahamas westward
through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a frontal system. This system is
forecast to move slowly southward over Cuba during the next couple
of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday.
Environmental conditions could be marginally conducive for some
slight development over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this
week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
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The good thing the GFS had teddy getting into the GOM early on 300 plus out. Monday do I believe the gfs with that scenario this far out.
 
This is a little circle that could develop, I guess.....its on both 18z GFS and Icon but neither does anything with it.


ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_22_19_31_17_332.jpg

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Henry2326 said:
This is a little circle that could develop, I guess.....its on both 18z GFS and Icon but neither does anything with it.


View attachment 49200

View attachment 49201
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I think the American model suite’s bullishness on a storm is due to a bias in Central Americans to over-develop. I remember specifically the GFS remaining consistent with a storm 300 hrs out, only for it to lose it 2 days later.
 
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