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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Henry2326

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That's not a good look....it feels like we have some kind of finale coming up with storms coming from different directions.

18z GFS

ScreenshotCapture_2020_10_13_18_43_05_653.jpg
 

GaWx

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18z GFS

Something tells me we won't get by this easy....

View attachment 50360
With already 10 TC/5 H hits, the US is due for a "get by easy" storm. IF any W Caribbean storm were to go over C or E Cuba, climo would favor it to miss FL although SC north would still have some chance to be hit ala Sandy for the NE and a couple of others that hit SC/NC area. The danger for FL and perhaps @pcbjr would be from one crossing W Cuba, or going W of Cuba.
 
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GaWx

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I just checked on FL hits on record resulting from late Oct. (10/17-31) W Car or Gulf geneses plus Wilma (since she was still in NW Car 10/21) back to 1851 and found some interesting things:

1. Most recent hit Wilma of 2005 with a MH hit on SW FL. This originated in the W Car and it went around Cuba.

2. Next most recent was 1998's Mitch, which was first in the W Car. He hit SW FL as a TS and also went around Cuba.

3. Assuming I didn't miss one, you then have to go back 48 years to Love of 1950, which formed in the central GOM and then hit the Big Bend as a TS.

4. Then you have to go back 29 years to the MH hit on Tampa in 1921 from one that formed in the W Car and then went around Cuba.

5. Next go back 17 years to the 1904 FL Pan hit of TS #6 that formed in the SW GOM.

6. #9 of 1892 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM

7. #16 of 1887 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the E GOM.

8. #7 of 1879 that hit a little N of Tampa as a TS after it formed in the W Car and went around Cuba

9. #7 of 1877 that hit the Big Bend as a TS after forming in the W GOM

10. #5 of 1872 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM.

11. #7 of 1865, which hit S FL as a H after forming in the W Car and going over W Cuba.

12. # 8 of 1859, which hit Tampa as a H after forming in the SW GOM.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis:
- 12 storms over 169 years or once every 14 years
- Out of the 12, only one crossed Cuba at all and it was a whopping 155 years ago! That one from 1865 appears to be the closest analog since 1851 to the current situation if it were to hit FL.
- Origins 7 GOM and 5 W Car
- 2 MH hits, 2 non-major H hits, 8 TS hits
- 6 of 7 GOM geneses hit as TS but only 2 of 5 W Car geneses hit as TS. Both MH hits from W Car.
- Lots of hits on Tampa (5 of the 12)
- Only 5 since 1900 (only one every 24 years) but 7 during 1851-1899 or one every 7 years!
 

Henry2326

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I just checked on FL hits on record resulting from late Oct. (10/17-31) W Car or Gulf geneses plus Wilma (since she was still in NW Car 10/21) back to 1851 and found some interesting things:

1. Most recent hit Wilma of 2005 with a MH hit on SW FL. This originated in the W Car and it went around Cuba.

2. Next most recent was 1998's Mitch, which was first in the W Car. He hit SW FL as a TS and also went around Cuba.

3. Assuming I didn't miss one, you then have to go back 48 years to Love of 1950, which formed in the central GOM and then hit the Big Bend as a TS.

4. Then you have to go back 29 years to the MH hit on Tampa in 1921 from one that formed in the W Car and then went around Cuba.

5. Next go back 17 years to the 1904 FL Pan hit of TS #6 that formed in the SW GOM.

6. #9 of 1892 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM

7. #16 of 1887 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the E GOM.

8. #7 of 1879 that hit a little N of Tampa as a TS after it formed in the W Car and went around Cuba

9. #7 of 1877 that hit the Big Bend as a TS after forming in the W GOM

10. #5 of 1872 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM.

11. #7 of 1865, which hit S FL as a H after forming in the W Car and going over W Cuba.

12. # 8 of 1859, which hit Tampa as a H after forming in the SW GOM.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis:
- 12 storms over 169 years or once every 14 years
- Out of the 12, only one crossed Cuba at all and it was a whopping 155 years ago! That one from 1865 appears to be the closest analog since 1851 to the current situation if it were to hit FL.
- Origins 7 GOM and 5 W Car
- 2 MH hits, 2 non-major H hits, 8 TS hits
- 6 of 7 GOM geneses hit as TS but only 2 of 5 W Car geneses hit as TS. Both MH hits from W Car.
- Lots of hits on Tampa (5 of the 12)
- Only 5 since 1900 (only one every 24 years) but 7 during 1851-1899 or one every 7 years!
Great info!!

Of the past 15 GFS model runs:
11 missed US completely, running it ACROSS Cuba
3 hit west side of FL
1 missed FL, but would have hit SC/NC had the run continued.

Comparing your info to the last 15 runs, I think this will change significantly over the next 10 days....or we have a once in a lifetime event happening, since all of the 11 model runs move ACROSS Cuba and the last time that happened was 155 years ago.
 

NCSNOW

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I read stories on Hazel,how everyone thought it was gonna ots, and wala. Caveat it was in the 1950s . But its the mac daddy of October canes for me. Love reading testimonies ,storie from folks who expierenced storms back in the day,before we have the tools we do today. Some good books on NC cane history.
 

Brent

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I dunno if it will actually hit the US but this is definitely one of the longest storm signals of the season for fantasy land
 

Brent

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Not much from the Caribbean on the 12z Euro but something is moving quickly towards the east coast

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_11.png
 

Brent

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Things heating up again Epsilon and Zeta are next and that's where 2005 ended.. in January two_atl_5d0.png
A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over
the weekend several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Some slow
development will be possible thereafter into early next week
while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing
about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 

k0skinne

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I just checked on FL hits on record resulting from late Oct. (10/17-31) W Car or Gulf geneses plus Wilma (since she was still in NW Car 10/21) back to 1851 and found some interesting things:

1. Most recent hit Wilma of 2005 with a MH hit on SW FL. This originated in the W Car and it went around Cuba.

2. Next most recent was 1998's Mitch, which was first in the W Car. He hit SW FL as a TS and also went around Cuba.

3. Assuming I didn't miss one, you then have to go back 48 years to Love of 1950, which formed in the central GOM and then hit the Big Bend as a TS.

4. Then you have to go back 29 years to the MH hit on Tampa in 1921 from one that formed in the W Car and then went around Cuba.

5. Next go back 17 years to the 1904 FL Pan hit of TS #6 that formed in the SW GOM.

6. #9 of 1892 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM

7. #16 of 1887 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the E GOM.

8. #7 of 1879 that hit a little N of Tampa as a TS after it formed in the W Car and went around Cuba

9. #7 of 1877 that hit the Big Bend as a TS after forming in the W GOM

10. #5 of 1872 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM.

11. #7 of 1865, which hit S FL as a H after forming in the W Car and going over W Cuba.

12. # 8 of 1859, which hit Tampa as a H after forming in the SW GOM.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis:
- 12 storms over 169 years or once every 14 years
- Out of the 12, only one crossed Cuba at all and it was a whopping 155 years ago! That one from 1865 appears to be the closest analog since 1851 to the current situation if it were to hit FL.
- Origins 7 GOM and 5 W Car
- 2 MH hits, 2 non-major H hits, 8 TS hits
- 6 of 7 GOM geneses hit as TS but only 2 of 5 W Car geneses hit as TS. Both MH hits from W Car.
- Lots of hits on Tampa (5 of the 12)
- Only 5 since 1900 (only one every 24 years) but 7 during 1851-1899 or one every 7 years!
Posts like these are what makes for a quality forum. Thank you for the time you put into this post and your wealth of data!
 

Myfrotho704_

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KMA would be something, kinda hoping for that trough in the west to be wayyyy more progressive then this instead of a ridge building on top of any developing TC like the KMA shows, either way it could get interesting for heavy rain if any 200mb divergence develops aloft like how some models show around D8-10 4AD8B62D-0057-40C4-A6E7-6B5E7252D818.png
 

NCSNOW

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Lot of Barking for a East coast storm. Is off the coast or coming right up the coast. Obviously the Canadian would be worst case scenario from last night
 
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