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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

ryan1234 said:
Yup. And one of those is bound to affect the SE coast, as long as that ridge keeps up.


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1996 had a storm train. Eduardo missed cleanly then fran went further west and got the EC.

Get the storms first then we will have to worry about the final.setup as they either recurve or get too close.
 
Henry2326 said:
12z Euro

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The low off the SE US coast on the 12Z Euro is a homegrown low that is actually being blocked as a new upper high starts to build right near the SE coast and a big 1030+ mb surface high builds over the NE US. New building upper highs accompanied by big NE sfc highs are often the most dangerous.

I have detailed 6 hour maps. The very last movement from 234 to 240 was very slowly to the SE. 500 mb winds are from N to S. I'm willing to bet that if maps were to go out further that the low would start to move S, then SW, and then W toward FL.

This sort of homegrown thing is actually what I'm more concerned about than the systems that are already in the MDR, which are increasingly likely looking to recurve (though far from a done deal). The subsequent MDR wave looks possibly threatening at the end of the 12 EPS but that's cartoonland. and the prior run recurved all members. This Euro run may be hinting at what we may need to watch more carefully, a sort of "ridge over troubled waters pattern" as Bastardi calls it.
 
BHS1975 said:
The ICON did well.


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Speaking of the ICON, here's the 18Z, which is still another run with a very weak sfc low off the SE coast that is only crawling N here. All ICON runs since 0Z have had something similar and today's 2 Euro runs also had something vaguely similar. Something worth monitoring as the water is very warm. Also, watch that low in the Gulf. Ridge over troubled waters pattern. Any Simon and Garfunkel fans here? lol:
1599170666834.png
 
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Henry2326 said:
12z GFS Para.....downloading issues....only gave me through 294. One goes west, while the other goes north.....955 going west....geez....

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Para can be thrown out here because you can see they are “pin-wheeling off a center point” which no model does well on esp for two storms that haven’t formed.
 
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