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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Brent

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Unless something pops up off the coast like Sally did, it looks like we could go the rest of the season without anything hitting land. All the ones that are out there now that came from waves off Africa look to weaken or curve out to sea. It is hard to believe that with all the systems we have had this year that we could luck out and only have one major hurricane make landfall.
Uh October is still ahead
 

Brent

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We have 98L from the wave off Africa

The CMC has a storm that just meanders in the Gulf next week no landfall at least through here

gem_mslp_pcpn_us_28.png
 
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BufordWX

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Looks we got areas of interest dropping in from the north now. Lol. 6992887C-99DA-422D-8A84-827C9CD23C08.png

3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far
northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the
Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during
the next few days where it will encounter warmer waters, which
could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or
subtropical characteristics this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 

lexxnchloe

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I read where the ICON is interesting with Teddy. We also have a storm that might form in the bahamas and a storm that might be forming right now in west GOM.
 

lexxnchloe

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I just checked joe bastardi. He says sally might get stuck in the atlantic and come back west.

Joe Bastardi


@BigJoeBastardi

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11m

Sally could get trapped and come back west for a time ( Doria 1967) will Teddy comes up on her east flank ( chloe did that in 1967). This left the SW gulf open for Beulah, while not coming from Caribbean feature in SW gulf may be our next US impact storm 6-10 days from now.
 

cyclogent

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What if I said 2020 has actually been a relatively quiet season? I know that sounds ridiculous, but, even with all the named storms thus far, the season-to-date ACE through September 15th is still only 68.1 in the Atlantic basin (granted that'll go up a good bit with Teddy the next several days). To date, we're at 16% above 1981-2010 climo, which is actually on the low side with an emerging La Nina.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
 

Henry2326

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What if I said 2020 has actually been a relatively quiet season? I know that sounds ridiculous, but, even with all the named storms thus far, the season-to-date ACE through September 15th is still only 68.1 in the Atlantic basin (granted that'll go up a good bit with Teddy the next several days). To date, we're at 16% above 1981-2010 climo, which is actually on the low side with an emerging La Nina.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
I would say we are lucky.....
 

GaWx

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What if I said 2020 has actually been a relatively quiet season? I know that sounds ridiculous, but, even with all the named storms thus far, the season-to-date ACE through September 15th is still only 68.1 in the Atlantic basin (granted that'll go up a good bit with Teddy the next several days). To date, we're at 16% above 1981-2010 climo, which is actually on the low side with an emerging La Nina.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
But not quiet at all as far as US impacts with them about to have a 4th H hit and 8th TS+ hit and it is only 9/15! And one of the H hits was a strong cat 4! There aren't going to be many seasons with H/TS+ hits of 4/8 as of 9/15. Land impacts are much more important to me than ACE. If the US had its own "ACE", it would be very high.
 
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GaWx

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But not quiet at all as far as US impacts with them about to have a 4th H hit and 8th TS+ hit and it is only 9/15! And one of the H hits was a strong cat 4! There aren't going to be many seasons with H/TS+ hits of 4/8 as of 9/15. Land impacts are much more important to me than ACE. If the US had its own "ACE", it would be very high.

More on how active this season has already been through just 9/15 for the US including Sally as a H hit:
1 MH
4 H+
8 TS+

Avg 1995-2019 only
0.5 MH
1.7 H+
3.9 TS+

And we're only through 9/15.

Also, how many seasons since 1995 had 4+ H hits the ENTIRE season? Only 2004 and 2005 with 5 each. And again it is only 9/15 with 4 already this season!


*Corrected as 2004 had 5, not 6, landfalling Hs. I took out Alex, despite giving Hatteras H winds, because it technically wasn't a landfall as the center was barely offshore.
 
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