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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Serious question, has any winter weather event ever trended better the closer it got in time for the south, or if we want to see a big snow we need it to start our showing 20 inches about 4 days out then it just goes down from there?
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
Serious question, has any winter weather event ever trended better the closer it got in time for the south, or if we want to see a big snow we need it to start our showing 20 inches about 4 days out then it just goes down from there?
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IMO, most winter weather events we get in the Carolinas don't really start trending in our direction until 3-5 days out. There have been some storms that have trended better right up and through the event, such as this one:

accum.20180118.png

Literally every HRRR run (inside of 15 hrs) was getting more and more juiced up.
 
sdm47 said:
IMO, most winter weather events we get in the Carolinas don't really start trending in our direction until 3-5 days out. There have been some storms that have trended better right up and through the event, such as this one:

View attachment 64318

Literally every HRRR run (inside of 15 hrs) was getting more and more juiced up.
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Keep in mind, that the only time storm busts in a good way occurs when cold air isn’t an issue. That’s a really good example, so in the other January 2018 storm. When we’re worried about a warm nose, or marginal temps, rarely do storms bust high.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Keep in mind, that the only time storm busts in a good way occurs when cold air isn’t an issue. That’s a really good example, so in the other January 2018 storm. When we’re worried about a warm nose, or marginal temps, rarely do storms bust high.
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Correct. And usually storms start coming back in the 3-5 day range after being suppressed at the longer range and model runs are showing cold and dry. If we are starting out with a juiced up, barely hanging on by a thread look at D7 it rarely ever works out.
 
superjames1992 said:
I remember February 13, 2014 quite well. It was 20 degrees in Greensboro with heavy sleet outside after changing over from snow. It will always sleet no matter how cold it is at the surface, it’s our destiny.
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As @dsaur would attest to, sleet is a wonderful form of precip. And the bonus is that nothing beats the sound of sleet.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Keep in mind, that the only time storm busts in a good way occurs when cold air isn’t an issue. That’s a really good example, so in the other January 2018 storm. When we’re worried about a warm nose, or marginal temps, rarely do storms bust high.
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Yeah I've lived in NC my whole life, with the bulk of it, nearly 40 years, in the middle of the state. What I have observed is similar to what you posted and also to what Sdm posted.

Our best winter storms so often aren't really on the table until we get with a week or 5 days. Once in a while, they will show up around D10 and then go away until D5. That probably has to do with shortwave sampling as well as some modicum of luck.

When cold is abundant, that's usually when we trend better toward a winter storm, which is usually a matter of an initial lack of precip trending toward more precip. My guess is that this is also related to the ever present NW trend phenomenon that we almost always deal with. Models tend to go from a lot of suppression to less suppression as we get closer. And usually lots of suppression initially is more like to be associated with plenty of cold air.

A marginal setup to begin with usually leads to mixing and rain, as models tend to "see" less cold air as we move in, i.e. the NW trend. Warm noses and boundary temp problems abound.

This is the central reason why I always always always argue for solid cold air first. Give me plenty of cold and a squashed system, and let it come to papa!

Is this always the case? No. But I'll play those odds any day of the week over the opposite scenario.
 
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GaWx said:
As @dsaur would attest to, sleet is a wonderful form of precip. And the bonus is that nothing beats the sound of sleet.
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I wish I felt that way! For me, there is literally nothing more heart-wrenching, gut-punching nor soul-crushing than to hear that pinging of sleet. I've lived through many a storm where it was pouring snow only to start hearing those pingers, knowing our time was coming to an end. I'm getting anxiety just thinking about some of them...
 
sdm47 said:
I wish I felt that way! For me, there is literally nothing more heart-wrenching, gut-punching nor soul-crushing than to hear that pinging of sleet. I've lived through many a storm where it was pouring snow only to start hearing those pingers, knowing our time was coming to an end. I'm getting anxiety just thinking about some of them...
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Here in the armpit of SE Wake Co., sleet is a way of life. You awaken to see a nice heavy snow falling. As you rush outside full of excitement, you see, without warning, the terror of those flakes get bigger and bigger and then fewer and farther between. And the pelting of the wind driven ice balls slamming into your skin compels you to run back inside, squinting hopelessly to see that last little flake of snow, knowing it's over. Oh and then worse yet, you listen helplessly as the sound of constant pinging fades into the quite, gut-wrenching nothingness of freezing rain. You watch the ice accrue, knowing that a few miles up the road, a raging blizzard is depositing beautiful piles of deep white snow. As the ice storm draws to a close, you once again rush to the window hoping to catch a glimpse of the few token flakes from the decaying backside band that mother nature so heartless throws your way just to remind you that you have choice but to submit to the merciless and tyrannical rule of the natural world.

I'm sorry...I'm not helping am I?! ?
 
Rain Cold said:
Here in the armpit of SE Wake Co., sleet is a way of life. You awaken to see a nice heavy snow falling. As you rush outside full of excitement, you see, without warning, the terror of those flakes get bigger and bigger and then fewer and farther between. And the pelting of the wind driven ice balls slamming into your skin compels you to run back inside, squinting hopelessly to see that last little flake of snow, knowing it's over. Oh and then worse yet, you listen helplessly as the sound of constant pinging fades into the quite, gut-wrenching nothingness of freezing rain. You watch the ice accrue, knowing that a few miles up the road, a raging blizzard is depositing beautiful piles of deep white snow. As the ice storm draws to a close, you once again rush to the window hoping to catch a glimpse of the few token flakes from the decaying backside band that mother nature so heartless throws your way just to remind you that you have choice but to submit to the merciless and tyrannical rule of the natural world.

I'm sorry...I'm not helping am I?! ?
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You stole my diary and posted it online.
 
Rain Cold said:
Here in the armpit of SE Wake Co., sleet is a way of life. You awaken to see a nice heavy snow falling. As you rush outside full of excitement, you see, without warning, the terror of those flakes get bigger and bigger and then fewer and farther between. And the pelting of the wind driven ice balls slamming into your skin compels you to run back inside, squinting hopelessly to see that last little flake of snow, knowing it's over. Oh and then worse yet, you listen helplessly as the sound of constant pinging fades into the quite, gut-wrenching nothingness of freezing rain. You watch the ice accrue, knowing that a few miles up the road, a raging blizzard is depositing beautiful piles of deep white snow. As the ice storm draws to a close, you once again rush to the window hoping to catch a glimpse of the few token flakes from the decaying backside band that mother nature so heartless throws your way just to remind you that you have choice but to submit to the merciless and tyrannical rule of the natural world.

I'm sorry...I'm not helping am I?! ?
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This is beautifully written.
 
Rain Cold said:
Here in the armpit of SE Wake Co., sleet is a way of life. You awaken to see a nice heavy snow falling. As you rush outside full of excitement, you see, without warning, the terror of those flakes get bigger and bigger and then fewer and farther between. And the pelting of the wind driven ice balls slamming into your skin compels you to run back inside, squinting hopelessly to see that last little flake of snow, knowing it's over. Oh and then worse yet, you listen helplessly as the sound of constant pinging fades into the quite, gut-wrenching nothingness of freezing rain. You watch the ice accrue, knowing that a few miles up the road, a raging blizzard is depositing beautiful piles of deep white snow. As the ice storm draws to a close, you once again rush to the window hoping to catch a glimpse of the few token flakes from the decaying backside band that mother nature so heartless throws your way just to remind you that you have choice but to submit to the merciless and tyrannical rule of the natural world.

I'm sorry...I'm not helping am I?! ?
Click to expand...
Damn RC we really in our feelings today ?
 
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