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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Based on the 12z ECMWF/EPS, it looks like the stratospheric circulation anomalies are gonna try to directly couple w/ the west-based -NAO as soon as the 2nd week of January. If this occurs, an extremely intense & prolonged period of -NAO could be lurking on the horizon, potentially rivaling 2010-11 & 2009-10 imo.

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Based on the 12z ECMWF/EPS, it looks like the stratospheric circulation anomalies are gonna try to directly couple w/ the west-based -NAO as soon as the 2nd week of January. If this occurs, an extremely intense & prolonged period of -NAO could be lurking on the horizon, potentially rivaling 2010-11 & 2009-10 imo.
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Miller A setups like what we may see a lot of in the coming month or two are much more tenuous imo than CAD or overrunning and are typically boom/bust type events with very limited predictability beyond day 4-6. Point is, going forward thru January & even February, don't get discouraged if you aren't seeing fantasy long-range snowstorms on ensemble guidance or operational NWP. These kinds of storms often sneak up on you at the very last minute (think Jan 2000, Dec 2010 for ex (although we've made some improvements since then)).
I've got to save this, because you know I'll be the one complaining about the lack of model snow. ;)
 
Pretty sure there’s some 2’ totals just to my SW, two storm total on 18z GFSView attachment 60834

If Mack were to get the close to a foot from the two storms combined that some models are suggesting is possible, Dubuque would be at 26" season to date, which would be more than double the normal through Jan 1 of 12"! Translation: Mack isn't just good at picking a good time to go on a cruise. He's also good at deciding the best time to move north.
 
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