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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Webberweather53 said:
The high-latitude block over Greenland looks basically fully coupled to the stratosphere on the Euro by January 10.

Also starting to see very clear signs of the circulation anomalies from the stratosphere propagating into the troposphere and beginning to project onto -AO as we get close to mid-month. This means our -NAO starts to become relatively more -AO-centric w/ time (lifts poleward), also meaning that the air masses that drop into the CONUS will progressively become deeper/cooler w/ time, especially as snow cover builds to our north before then.

January 14-25 (maybe beyond) is providing one of the most favorable looks we've seen in a really long time in the southern US imo. This isn't to say we can't snow prior to then but I think odds are we may be handing off to the mid-Atlantic before mid-month.

Patience is a virtue and will be needed prior to then. I'm honestly willing to bet that by this time next week, ensemble model output fields (snow for ex) start to sniff something out in this period.



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Man! This made my day! I just took a huge sigh of relief. I really look too much into these things, lol.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Man! This made my day! I just took a huge sigh of relief. I really look too much into these things, lol.
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Haha thanks. It's almost always a good idea to have a very steady hand & patience when it comes to LR forecasting, things evolve a bit more slowly than most would like and in many cases you just have to take gambles, risks, & anticipate where NWP will go and be more proactive instead of following & reacting to the models. Honestly, it's totally normal for people to read and react & I see far too many pro mets in our field do this on a consistent basis (Bamwx for ex), these qualities are something that most gain w/ time & experience in just looking at these things
 
Sleet City USA said:
I’ll never understand the hatred of Notre Dame down south. They haven’t won a title in thirty years and they regularly get smacked on the big stage
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I’m an auburn fan and we REALLY suck . I’ve always hated ND and I have no clue as to why


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CaryWx said:
How does the NWS make this call today based on what the LR is predicting? Looks like they tossed all of that in favor of the La Nina
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I think it is because the models still have a warm first half of Jan for much of the country, esp NE/MW. So, odds still favor a warm Jan in much of the US since the last half is up in the air.

Note also that the prob for AN in the SE is a good bit lower reflecting on a closer to N 1st half. I think they should have had a more neutral Jan in the SE.2E8010D0-5942-4738-B36B-F5CB84E26C8B.png
 
CaryWx said:
How does the NWS make this call today based on what the LR is predicting? Looks like they tossed all of that in favor of the La Nina
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They always go with climo, until the bn is a slam dunk and about 2-4 days away! They are horrible
 
Brent said:
I really don't want to go back to snowless Dallas ?

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How much snow did Abilene get ?
 
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