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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Rain Cold said:
DO NOT READ THIS POST!!

Aaaaaand that would be the first half of winter in the books. Again.

GFS is trash
Follow the ensembles
But the Euro still has the bock
But prime climo for snow is way down the line
The SSWE is just getting started
We don't need the Pacific
La Nina is fading
But the MJO is at a low amplitude
We don't really need it thaaaaat cold
The models will change again tomorrow

Why did you read this??
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Yes, it looks like suppressed high temps but average lows in the Atlanta area for the first half of January. It reminds me of an El Niño. No chance of snow through the first two weeks. A real shame.
 
looks like OKC got a solid snow storm last night. From what I saw the final total was 4.9 inches at the airport. That now brings them to around 10.6 inches on the season which is well a over there average and makes this the second snowiest start to a winter in the records. Craziest thing is that doesn’t even count the major ice storm they had in late October. By my count they have had 4 pretty decent winter storms this season so far. Pretty remarkable.
 
patience-young-grasshopper.jpg
 
Lickwx said:
This thread is great ! I want to whine too now . We need 70 we are severely overdue , wonder if we are closing in on record consecutive days without one . Screw that CAD .
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I can’t wait for the SER to show up in the medium range. There will be no turning back. Then the cliff diving will commence.
 
Lickwx said:
This thread is great ! I want to whine too now . We need 70 we are severely overdue , wonder if we are closing in on record consecutive days without one . Screw that CAD .
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Lick,
We've already had a 78 high here officially! Maybe move south? I'd be glad to trade for your wx today. Cold rain is awesome (not just the member). Cold anything is awesome (per SE standards that is).

Noon:

SAVANNAH ARPT PTSUNNY 78 67 68 S17G28 30.14F
 
Ollie Williams said:
This is what I’m worried about, and seems to be the model consensus. The ridge is way too SE, and is going to cause all storms to cut. Until I see models shift away from that look, even in the short range, I’m going to be more bearish about this pattern.
View attachment 61574
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Yeah I’ll pass on that, unless that low near Atlantic Canada is further west
 
Ollie Williams said:
This is what I’m worried about, and seems to be the model consensus. The ridge is way too SE, and is going to cause all storms to cut. Until I see models shift away from that look, even in the short range, I’m going to be more bearish about this pattern.
View attachment 61574
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Amen! It's almost like it's a different facet of the WAR problem we've had for a decade. If we really want a true -NAO, show me the block in baffin bay......but with strong negative anomalies on the east coast/east canada north east in to the Atlantic. Show me consistent and persistent 50/50 lows, not ridging off the NE coast. Until I see that, this pattern and -NAO sucks because we're not going to get cold any other way with everything bottled up over Siberia IMO. Still not sold that this is a classic -NAO without that.
 
GaWx said:
Lick,
We've already had a 78 high here officially! Maybe move south? I'd be glad to trade for your wx today. Cold rain is awesome (not just the member). Cold anything is awesome (per SE standards that is).

Noon:

SAVANNAH ARPT PTSUNNY 78 67 68 S17G28 30.14F
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Certainly , however we average 9 days over 70 in winter including a couple in January but it’s been since November ! So very unusual .
 
SnowNiner said:
Amen! It's almost like it's a different facet of the WAR problem we've had for a decade. If we really want a true -NAO, show me the block in baffin bay......but with strong negative anomalies on the east coast/east canada north east in to the Atlantic. Show me consistent and persistent 50/50 lows, not ridging off the NE coast. Until I see that, this pattern and -NAO sucks because we're not going to get cold any other way with everything bottled up over Siberia IMO. Still not sold that this is a classic -NAO without that.
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Agree 1000%..this spells cool and rainy for 90% of us...no real cold. Baffin Block= negative nao that actually helps us
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Damn heart palps is the weirdest thing ever
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I first noticed them in my teens and thought I was in deep doo doo. I was so worried that I had my mom take me to a cardio, who even did an echo. Of course, they found nothing to worry about. But keep in mind that this was before Al Gore performed his miracle (;)) and came up with
his absolutely brilliant idea (;)) of the internet. So, this was back in the day when one couldn't simply go online (since there wasn't yet such a thing as online) and google heart palps or ask others at BBs like this about palps. There really was no easy way to get a good feel for how benign palps typically were. I didn't even know what to call what I was experiencing. I was just worried and was a hypochondriac as a kid.

I still have them from time to time but no longer worry even though they still feel weird and a little unsettling. Of course, that's not to say they can't in rare cases be a sign of something abnormal. That's my disclaimer as I'm not a doc. :)
 
Why does the tone in the January thread seem so much less optimistic than just last night? I don't get it. The model consensus is still MUCH colder than it was just 2 days ago! And we still have the SSW on the way and it is still every bit as strong as what earlier runs have shown. As a matter of fact, the lagging GEFS is so much stronger than it was and is now fairly close to the Euro as @Webberweather53 expected would occur.
 
GaWx said:
Why does the tone in the January thread seem so much less optimistic than just last night? I don't get it. The model consensus is still MUCH colder than it was just 2 days ago! And we still have the SSW on the way and it is still every bit as strong as what earlier runs have shown. As a matter of fact, the lagging GEFS is so much stronger than it was and is now fairly close to the Euro as @Webberweather53 expected would occur.
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There’s Way to much Impatience right now
 
GaWx said:
Why does the tone in the January thread seem so much less optimistic than just last night? I don't get it. The model consensus is still MUCH colder than it was just 2 days ago! And we still have the SSW on the way and it is still every bit as strong as what earlier runs have shown. As a matter of fact, the lagging GEFS is so much stronger than it was and is now fairly close to the Euro as @Webberweather53 expected would occur.
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We overanalyze stuff.
 
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