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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

This is what I’m going with, I think the Southeast ridge will be a bit more relaxed this year, and there will definitely be colder temps vs last winter, but we’re gonna have problems with the MJO which is gonna be a problem since the patterns associated with them are often long lasting, I’m thinking we squeeze in 2 moderate/major winter storms with 3 light events192FB88A-17DE-43D5-AF89-A212EBBBF718.jpeg
 
I'm sure it'll snow at some point somewhere. How much who knows? But temps? Solidly above average. Not a chance of below average temps!
 
Warm waters will absolutely dominate the maritime continent. We might see some of the warmest SST’s we’ve ever seen down there this winter. MJO 4,5,6 will reign supreme. Nothing else will matter. Above average winter temperatures up and down the eastern seaboard. However, I do think we time a banger of a long duration snow event. Will it be east or west of the mountains? Stay tuned! ??
I think a great met from Shelby once said, warm oceans, cold continents! I’m going to ride or die with that. It hasn’t let me down yet
 
This is what I’m going with, I think the Southeast ridge will be a bit more relaxed this year, and there will definitely be colder temps vs last winter, but we’re gonna have problems with the MJO which is gonna be a problem since the patterns associated with them are often long lasting, I’m thinking we squeeze in 2 moderate/major winter storms with 3 light eventsView attachment 44225
Highly optimistic
 
Warm waters will absolutely dominate the maritime continent. We might see some of the warmest SST’s we’ve ever seen down there this winter. MJO 4,5,6 will reign supreme. Nothing else will matter. Above average winter temperatures up and down the eastern seaboard. However, I do think we time a banger of a long duration snow event. Will it be east or west of the mountains? Stay tuned! ??

Delta T? Gulf Stream is a natural baroclinic zone, optimistic for increased activity with a semi-dominant northern stream vs zonal flow with junk hanging in the Baja trunk.
 
Delta T? Gulf Stream is a natural baroclinic zone, optimistic for increased activity with a semi-dominant northern stream vs zonal flow with junk hanging in the Baja trunk.

Hated when shortwaves would get stuck around Baja last winter only to eject when the 50/50 was out and give us that 40 and rain or get squashed into oblivion
 
Prediction: I will complain about no snow until the middle of Feb., when I will get a half inch. It will melt in an hour and I will spent the remainder of winter complaining.
Or worse, that same snowstorm gives me 10 inches and you get that half inch and it takes days to melt somehow.

My actual prediction:
No ice at all. Not happening. We'll have above average snow here but only one real system and maybe a dusting event and that's it. Something like a 3 or 4 inch storm and that's it. Other case is two small inch or two storms.
 
I gave up on winter a long time ago. When I was a child I was a snow fanatic , I would be glued to the tv watching every forecast when snow was predicted . Then I would stay up and crane my neck up at the window to see all the beautiful big fat flakes fall! I would get up crack of dawn open the blinds to see the beautiful winter wonderland! Well.... I was disappointed a lot of the times . I remember 2011 and 2012 and 2013 , that was when I gave up and became a warmth lover .

I also despise wake forest , my cousins in wake forest always got so much more snow than me. There grass would be covered , no blades in sight where as at my house nope, could still see grass a lot of the time. Screw wake forest . I used to be so jealous ,I would ache when it all began melting.
 
I’m going to miss the wedge!?
And Nicole Papay
But staying on topic, maybe we get a Nina, that acts like a Nino? But whatever it takes to keep the mojo in 1,2, and 8! I’m pulling for y’all
 
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