2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

[GaWx]

but what about the Siberian Khatru Snowfall Index?

Yeah, that thing turned out to be useless as far as I’m concerned.

 

[GaWx]

It would be funny as heck if the warm forecast that JB put out for this winter busts on the cold side after the way he’s been adamant about East coast cold for the last few years. Of course it would absolutely fit 2020 if there to be a board wide historic Southern Winter Storm at some point in mid to late December.

JB has already initiated his backup plan in case it turns out colder than his forecast by saying there are things that can make it go wrong. Plus he may cool his forecast before December (like he did for last winter) or later. He always makes sure he has a backup plan or an excuse.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

There’s no correlation between a negative NAO in Oct and one for DJF averaged out...i.e., it doesn’t make one more likely nor does it make one less likely vs when not having a -NAO Oct. The stats since 1950 tell me this. And the stats just since 2000 tell me this. But if it will make it cooler in Oct, that’s good enough for me.

But there seems to be a correlation between a constant scandi ridge in fall and a overall cooler pattern afterwards in the winter, especially D/J, (febs after can sometimes go full on torch) I’ve posted this map before, all the years (nino/nina) with a scandi ridge in November seemed to have boded well for the EUS, it always helps that it aids in weakening the PV
Shoot even 2017 had one (that was a Nina)

 

[Tarheel1]

It would be funny as heck if the warm forecast that JB put out for this winter busts on the cold side after the way he’s been adamant about East coast cold for the last few years. Of course it would absolutely fit 2020 if there to be a board wide historic Southern Winter Storm at some point in mid to late December.

He will say he called for cold! I can’t even with him

 

[cyclogent]

I failed miserably the last time I extrapolated a September pattern into a winter forecast but I can't help it lol. It's like weather crack and I'm hooked. modernweenie
More details to share later...

 

[cd2play]

One thing about it is, JB's winter forecast isn't going to bust 10 degrees too cold this time!

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

One thing about it is, JB's winter forecast isn't going to bust 10 degrees too cold this time!

Nope this will be the one time out of 10 he's right!

 

[NoSnowATL]

Time to start building that snow pack!

 

[tennessee storm]

We are now officially in a La Niña

 

[NoSnowATL]

We are now officially in a La Niña

I’ve seen snow or ice 7 of the last 9 La ninas if my google is correct.

 

[NoSnowATL]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2020-2021-us-winter-forecast/818601

 

[Chazwin]

Time to start building that snow pack!
View attachment 49596

I especially like see that in eastern Canada. Need a good source region for CAD.

 

[cd2play]

Keep in mind a warm winter does not automatically mean severe storms. It is possible to have a warm and dry winter.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

 

[accu35]

Like to see us go through them names this year

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’m going with Nathaniel

 

[Bham 99]

I’m going with Nathaniel

I'm going with Peggy I'm sure she would peg us well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Winter is over

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Winter is over View attachment 49623View attachment 49624View attachment 49625

Looks good! Something familiar that we're used to for a decade now.

 

[cd2play]

Winter is over View attachment 49623View attachment 49624View attachment 49625

It's been over since Feb 2018