I'm so tired of warm noses. What an epic bust by the models 24 hours out.
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SD said:I'm so tired of warm noses. What an epic bust by the models 24 hours out.
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Well it seems like the models always under play it in the first place they did on both storms last year and this one too. I think the fact we never really closed a low off at 850mb killed it for many of us we instead had an open trough. Also I don't think this storm got as dynamic as the models portrayedEastAtlwx said:SD said:I'm so tired of warm noses. What an epic bust by the models 24 hours out.
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Do you have any idea why this warm nose was so strong?
SD said:I'm so tired of warm noses. What an epic bust by the models 24 hours out.
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LetItSnow said:Almost 50 years ago we put a man on the moon; you would think by now there would be a decent weather model. Even the HRRR during the event was totally wrong for this area.
This goes down as one of the most brutal busts ever, at least around this area.
This one had a real 90s storm feel to it. Thinking big snow get IPBHS1975 said:Storms aren't what they used to be. AGW for the win.
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snaowstud said:Southmetroatlantawx said:
Pretty neighborhood though...
Snowflowxxl said:The NW trend is unreal. You want to be no where near the sweet spot, even 12 hours out
BHS1975 said:SD said:I'm so tired of warm noses. What an epic bust by the models 24 hours out.
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NAM sniffed it out again.
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It sucks big time Shawn, but that's all too often how it turns out down here. I don't even know if I'd trust anything even 12 hours out, until it's literally outside of my window. I tell you what, Jim Gandy is who I will always put my trust in as far as local wx for us is concerned. He never ever has an overraction in situations like these. Also, the folks at the NWS CAE, do an awesome job. They are thorough and informed as they come. I really hate it for all the folks this looked great for and ended up getting nada or way underdone.Shawn said:2 days talking about half-dollar size flakes and being okay with smaller accumulations. From now on down here especially in CAE, I give up until 12 hours or less out.. and even then I'll still be cautious. It sucks because a lot of areas knew they were going to get something okay and they ended up with absolute garbage.
I hate it for myself and everyone else.At least I was able to cope the last couple days with the fail. You guys guy screwed.
LetItSnow said:Almost 50 years ago we put a man on the moon; you would think by now there would be a decent weather model. Even the HRRR during the event was totally wrong for this area.
This goes down as one of the most brutal busts ever, at least around this area.
DLI4SCwx said:It sucks big time Shawn, but that's all too often how it turns out down here. I don't even know if I'd trust anything even 12 hours out, until it's literally outside of my window. I tell you what, Jim Gandy is who I will always put my trust in as far as local wx us concerned. He never ever has an overraction in situations like these. Also, the folks at the NWS CAE, do an awesome job. They are thorough and informed as they come. I really hate it for all the folks this looked great for and ended up getting nada or way underdone.Shawn said:2 days talking about half-dollar size flakes and being okay with smaller accumulations. From now on down here especially in CAE, I give up until 12 hours or less out.. and even then I'll still be cautious. It sucks because a lot of areas knew they were going to get something okay and they ended up with absolute garbage.
I hate it for myself and everyone else.At least I was able to cope the last couple days with the fail. You guys guy screwed.
He's been around a longgg time. He's seen it all around here. When he speaks I pay full attention to him when it comes to any situation like this. Voice of reason if you will.JtSmarts said:DLI4SCwx said:It sucks big time Shawn, but that's all too often how it turns out down here. I don't even know if I'd trust anything even 12 hours out, until it's literally outside of my window. I tell you what, Jim Gandy is who I will always put my trust in as far as local wx us concerned. He never ever has an overraction in situations like these. Also, the folks at the NWS CAE, do an awesome job. They are thorough and informed as they come. I really hate it for all the folks this looked great for and ended up getting nada or way underdone.Shawn said:2 days talking about half-dollar size flakes and being okay with smaller accumulations. From now on down here especially in CAE, I give up until 12 hours or less out.. and even then I'll still be cautious. It sucks because a lot of areas knew they were going to get something okay and they ended up with absolute garbage.
I hate it for myself and everyone else.At least I was able to cope the last couple days with the fail. You guys guy screwed.
Yep Jim was never enthused about this storm at all, and only called for a dusting at best.
Touchet said:I wouldn't be too disappointed. Those of us next to the line where we should have had huge snow, especially AL and GA, did not really see snow. It was mostly grauple and sleet. Literally the whole night it sounded like popcorn cooking. Now, I'm sure those further north got real snow. It was so disappointing to have temps in the upper 20s and still have sleet and rain mixing in with snow. And this was for 6 hours it did this, in heavy precip, after sunset. It was unreal.
DLI4SCwx said:It sucks big time Shawn, but that's all too often how it turns out down here. I don't even know if I'd trust anything even 12 hours out, until it's literally outside of my window. I tell you what, Jim Gandy is who I will always put my trust in as far as local wx for us is concerned. He never ever has an overraction in situations like these. Also, the folks at the NWS CAE, do an awesome job. They are thorough and informed as they come. I really hate it for all the folks this looked great for and ended up getting nada or way underdone.Shawn said:2 days talking about half-dollar size flakes and being okay with smaller accumulations. From now on down here especially in CAE, I give up until 12 hours or less out.. and even then I'll still be cautious. It sucks because a lot of areas knew they were going to get something okay and they ended up with absolute garbage.
I hate it for myself and everyone else.At least I was able to cope the last couple days with the fail. You guys guy screwed.
Shawn said:
SoutheastRidge said:The same people who say they will never trust any model again are the same ones who will get sucked in once again when the models are showing 6-10" of snow.