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Misc 2017 Banter/venting thread

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I think what was so disappointing to me is the fact I was on the NW side and that last day or so when the models kept showing that NW trend, I got sucked back in and had my hopes up. Im about 12-15 miles north of I-20 and about 30 miles from Alabama line, things were looking up for a decent 2" event. Got what our neighbors in Alabama got, freezing rain, sleet and a 10 minute flizzard. I know absolutely nothing about the dynamics of these systems that cause the warm nose, I`m just now trying to follow along when yall do pbp of model runs lol. Im just curious what the folks at the NWS saw that gave them the confidence to adjust our possible totals upward 2 times before a flake even fell, we went from 1-3, to 2-4 then up to a possible 4-6" lol. My area got burned bad a couple winters ago when our 278 corridor was in the sweet spot for 3-6" and we got 2" then rain and 15 minutes north got 6". Gotta love winter in the south
 
Like i told people at work yesterday. Get six buckets label them Nothing, Trace, 1-2, 3-4, sleet, and ice. Then get the milk jug like the old time carnival ones and Label it 5+. Get a softball, put a blind fold on, stand 10 feet away, toss the ball and what evever it goes in You have a better chance of it being correct than the models. Everybody will get alot more sleep.
 
Shawn said:
2 days talking about half-dollar size flakes and being okay with smaller accumulations.   From now on down here especially in CAE, I give up until 12 hours or less out.. and even then I'll still be cautious.  It sucks because a lot of areas knew they were going to get something okay and they ended up with absolute garbage.

I hate it for myself and everyone else. :(  At least I was able to cope the last couple days with the fail.  You guys guy screwed.
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It sucks big time Shawn, but that's all too often how it turns out down here.  I don't even know if I'd trust anything even 12 hours out, until it's literally outside of my window. I tell you what, Jim Gandy is who I will always put my trust in as far as local wx for us is concerned. He never ever has an overraction in situations like these. Also, the folks at the NWS CAE, do an awesome job. They are thorough and informed as they come. I really hate it for all the folks this looked great for and ended up getting nada or way underdone.
 
LetItSnow said:
Almost 50 years ago we put a man on the moon; you would think by now there would be a decent weather model.  Even the HRRR during the event was totally wrong for this area.

This goes down as one of the most brutal busts ever, at least around this area.
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Models will never be that great. Too many moving parts in the atmospheres that are always moving
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Shawn said:
2 days talking about half-dollar size flakes and being okay with smaller accumulations.   From now on down here especially in CAE, I give up until 12 hours or less out.. and even then I'll still be cautious.  It sucks because a lot of areas knew they were going to get something okay and they ended up with absolute garbage.

I hate it for myself and everyone else. :(  At least I was able to cope the last couple days with the fail.  You guys guy screwed.
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It sucks big time Shawn, but that's all too often how it turns out down here.  I don't even know if I'd trust anything even 12 hours out, until it's literally outside of my window. I tell you what, Jim Gandy is who I will always put my trust in as far as local wx us concerned. He never ever has an overraction in situations like these. Also, the folks at the NWS CAE, do an awesome job. They are thorough and informed as they come. I really hate it for all the folks this looked great for and ended up getting nada or way underdone.
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Yep Jim was never enthused about this storm at all, and only called for a dusting at best.
 
JtSmarts said:
DLI4SCwx said:
Shawn said:
2 days talking about half-dollar size flakes and being okay with smaller accumulations.   From now on down here especially in CAE, I give up until 12 hours or less out.. and even then I'll still be cautious.  It sucks because a lot of areas knew they were going to get something okay and they ended up with absolute garbage.

I hate it for myself and everyone else. :(  At least I was able to cope the last couple days with the fail.  You guys guy screwed.
Click to expand...
It sucks big time Shawn, but that's all too often how it turns out down here.  I don't even know if I'd trust anything even 12 hours out, until it's literally outside of my window. I tell you what, Jim Gandy is who I will always put my trust in as far as local wx us concerned. He never ever has an overraction in situations like these. Also, the folks at the NWS CAE, do an awesome job. They are thorough and informed as they come. I really hate it for all the folks this looked great for and ended up getting nada or way underdone.
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Yep Jim was never enthused about this storm at all, and only called for a dusting at best.
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He's been around a longgg time. He's seen it all around here. When he speaks I pay full attention to him when it comes to any situation like this. Voice of reason if you will.
 
I wouldn't be too disappointed. Those of us next to the line where we should have had huge snow, especially AL and GA, did not really see snow. It was mostly grauple and sleet. Literally the whole night it sounded like popcorn cooking. Now, I'm sure those further north got real snow. It was so disappointing to have temps in the upper 20s and still have sleet and rain mixing in with snow. And this was for 6 hours it did this, in heavy precip, after sunset. It was unreal.
 
Touchet said:
I wouldn't  be too disappointed. Those of us next to the line where we should have had huge snow, especially AL and GA, did not really see snow. It was mostly grauple and sleet. Literally the whole night it sounded like popcorn cooking. Now, I'm sure those further north got real snow. It was so disappointing to have temps in the upper 20s and still have sleet and rain mixing in with snow.  And this was for 6 hours it did this, in heavy precip, after sunset. It was unreal.
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Its not something that you can play in, but it's pretty surreal to see it when there's as much ice as you described. Reminds me of January 2011 at home. Had a white ground after it but it was pure, rock solid ice.

It was almost glacier like, and it took a while to go away after the event because of cold temps.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Shawn said:
2 days talking about half-dollar size flakes and being okay with smaller accumulations.   From now on down here especially in CAE, I give up until 12 hours or less out.. and even then I'll still be cautious.  It sucks because a lot of areas knew they were going to get something okay and they ended up with absolute garbage.

I hate it for myself and everyone else. :(  At least I was able to cope the last couple days with the fail.  You guys guy screwed.
Click to expand...
It sucks big time Shawn, but that's all too often how it turns out down here.  I don't even know if I'd trust anything even 12 hours out, until it's literally outside of my window. I tell you what, Jim Gandy is who I will always put my trust in as far as local wx for us is concerned. He never ever has an overraction in situations like these. Also, the folks at the NWS CAE, do an awesome job. They are thorough and informed as they come. I really hate it for all the folks this looked great for and ended up getting nada or way underdone.
Click to expand...

I told myself a year or two ago that I wasn't gonna trust anything 'til we're a day away. Now, put me in the group to not trust anything until we're 8-12 hours away.

If Jim Gandy, along with a couple folks on here, start to get excited about our snow prospects, then that will increase my anticipation. Gandy has been on point in these scenarios since I can remember paying attention to him (which, goes back to at least '88).

For example, I'll never forget when folks on The Weather Channel thought our area was done with wintry precip during the early-January '88 snowstorm. I tuned into WIS TV 10 (Gandy was a met there at one point), and Gandy told viewers to expect another batch of snow to come into the area shortly, and we could pick up another inch. Right on cue, that is what occurred. If we're in the short-range, and he's not excited, then one needs to listen.

By the way, I also agree with you, DL, per the Columbia NWS. They're typically on point.
 
Gandy nailed Hugo a bit better than others in the time too when there were much less modeling advancements.
 
Testing an image upload using new system that doesn't have bad ads.


 
The same people who say they will never trust any model again are the same ones who will get sucked in once again when the models are showing 6-10" of snow.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
The same people who say they will never trust any model again are the same ones who will get sucked in once again when the models are showing 6-10" of snow.
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I think alot of us just get caught up in the excitement and kind of put a space in their mind between reality and what models are saying, especially when many models were consistent on big snows for us. It was hard to look away when they kept saying inches and inches for us.
 
A certain meteorologist from the Bham market said his forecast was "excellent". I'm not bashing, because I definitely respect him. I do think the forecast was a huge bust. The WSW was prob warranted, primarily for road conditions, they were bad. I was on them all night and saw multiple wrecks and almost wrecks. We ended up driving to the top of Cheaha and it was at least a solid half to inch of hard ice. Roads were bad. I was in a jeep equipped btw to handle things before anyone lectures about being on the roads. We didn't slide or have a single problem going up or coming down. I just can't see how this forecast was excellent...they called for up to 4 inches in my area. Not a person saw even an inch and none was snow. Busting on a forecast doesn't make you a bad met. Some just have a hard time it seems accepting that. Its winter wx in the south...very hard to nail. I just wanted to vent, bc that statement by him rubbed me the wrong way. He almost comes off as arrogant these days. The sad thing is I used to love him and think he was "the man". It kinda seems all of the accolades have went to his head. Nothing wrong with being humble. You can't win em all. <end rant.
 
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