ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's also going to be interesting watching how the area responds in general to this event, since it could be rain south of Sawnee mountain, but ZR north. Wonder of the models are just too low-res to pick it up.
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Wintry 2/3-2/4 Mixed Bag NC, SC, NE GA
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
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BPATL
Member
Ya know I like you on here, but did you not use to live here, and then you went to live with Mother? Anyway, if you did, you know that CAD is always messed up, no model has ever figured it out. It is a bizarre micro climate. DP in Atlanta right now is 12 degrees...
I've lived in GA my entire life so i'm well aware of how CAD works. FFC seems to always underestimate the strength of the wedge for whatever reason.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
HRRR has busted horribly on overnight lows here lately in NC, it was off by several degrees just last night and only pushed RDU into the mid 20s, we reached 17...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Mesoscale models are better than the globals at forecasting CAD...don't get me wrong, I think the RGEM isn't going to be right but in this situation, use the NAM temps.
Think the CAD areas see a glaze to up to 0.25 before changing to rain. Possible to get close to problems but I'm not sure.
Think the CAD areas see a glaze to up to 0.25 before changing to rain. Possible to get close to problems but I'm not sure.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Heres HRRR verification for last night here in central NC. Not even close, way too warm just about everywhere. This has been a fairly regular occurrence of late from what I've noticed
The HRRR just upped its game! Gives me .40 of ice accumulate. Trending..... Now I'm in the bullseye on 3-4 models!! Skies are very clear right now, temps falling quick
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I'm not expecting anything other than rain(and maybe a brief episode of sleet to start) in my portion of Cherokee since FFC is saying zr/sleet at onset possible. I'm at 43/14 as of this hour with a wet bulb around 33/34. Will be interesting to see what areas are able to get down to near 32 or below for sure though.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
By that logic, we're going to be in for ice all over here tomorrow.
This is starting to have that eerie feeling here in upstate SC...i love winter weather as much as the next guy but ice sucks!
NOT! Let's bring the noise!
NOT! Let's bring the noise!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
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Kylo
Member
I wonder how close this could get to a December 2005 for your area up into western NC.
That might be tough! I hear that one mentioned a lot, right behind Dec '02 ( holy grail of ice storms in my life) ! There is a lot of moisture, moderate to heavy precip will be around, lock in the in situ , get temps to 30, look out!
BPATL
Member
It is a bit concerning the temperatures around this area even currently. Hopefully the flow will begin to raise our temperatures as we approach the onset of precipitation.......
Thankfully this area has not had any ridiculous model runs, but I don't like seeing mid 30s next to my back yard already, with wedges underdone by modeling.
Thankfully this area has not had any ridiculous model runs, but I don't like seeing mid 30s next to my back yard already, with wedges underdone by modeling.
i was thinking same thing Shawn
I went over the NAM/GFS MOS data and there really is no support for anything but rain, I would expect at least the cold bias of the RGEM to be showing something here by now. 35F and rain is always fun, lol. I can't see all ensemble members, the cold canadian, and icon all busting on the temperature here, but still.
Cold north wind in Cleveland TN
yea and 33 and rain is the worst lol! I think we will be ok.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I remember an ice storm from the past in which either the mets just completely ignored guidance or the models all busted with this area, but that was 14 years ago.
I don't expect to see anything, and I'm fine with it, but just something to think about. It was likely close to borderline then, with this it's not. CAD temps are better forecasted by mesoscales (not the precip itself) but at times it seems to have a mind of it's own. I've seen a number of times in which my temp is a number of degrees below what was actually expected due to CAD. It doesn't mean a whole lot outside of nitpicking, but with an actual winter situation, that isn't fun to deal with for people that can be involved in this, like upstate SC and northward.
I fully expect my high to bust lower than what I have forecasted tomorrow, as usual with CAD.
I don't expect to see anything, and I'm fine with it, but just something to think about. It was likely close to borderline then, with this it's not. CAD temps are better forecasted by mesoscales (not the precip itself) but at times it seems to have a mind of it's own. I've seen a number of times in which my temp is a number of degrees below what was actually expected due to CAD. It doesn't mean a whole lot outside of nitpicking, but with an actual winter situation, that isn't fun to deal with for people that can be involved in this, like upstate SC and northward.
I fully expect my high to bust lower than what I have forecasted tomorrow, as usual with CAD.