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Wintry 2/3-2/4 Mixed Bag NC, SC, NE GA (2 Viewers)

packfan98

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#4
12z RGEM is definitely colder than the 6z. Here's the last frame just as precip is moving in. Waiting on tropical tidbits to finish so we can compare to 6z at the same time.

Dew points
 
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#5
Don't look now, 12z RGEM keeping upstate CAD favored areas below freezing at least until 12z Sunday (the end of the run) Major hit incoming
 

StoneMtnWx

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#6
12Z Icon has 2m temps at freezing little further S/SW in Ga...has 32 degree line near the Gwinnett/DeKalb border, and into N Fulton.
Here is 2m with precip, remember TT doesn't have maps for IP/ZR.

45 pre.png 45 temp.png 48 pre.png 48 temp.png 51 pre.png 51 temp.png
54 pre.png 54 temps.png
 

ForsythSnow

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#8
12Z Icon has 2m temps at freezing little further S/SW in Ga...has 32 degree line near the Gwinnett/DeKalb border, and into N Fulton.
Here is 2m with precip, remember TT doesn't have maps for IP/ZR.

View attachment 3697 View attachment 3698 View attachment 3699 View attachment 3700 View attachment 3701 View attachment 3702
View attachment 3703 View attachment 3704
If temps remain a degree above freezing on the runs after some icy precipitation, they likely could be wrong and could verify at or below freezing given the CAD. Definitely have to watch this.
 
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#12
FWIW: The RGEM has always had runs that go further than 48 on TT, it's just every now and again that it does. (I think 0z or 12z? or maybe the opposite lol)

GFS is a front end thump btw, which may have been an improvement from recently.
 
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#14
If the CAD gets any stronger than forecast by the NAM and RGEM could even get dicey as far east as the Triangle. Some appreciable ZR is becoming probable if not likely for the Triad the way we're going with this
I know that has happened before in the Triangle. I remember one time well when I was in 9th grade. It was just supposed to be rain in Durham, but it ended up being freezing rain, and I got stuck on the school bus that morning because the bus couldn't make it up a hill. A deputy sheriff had to take us home, and there were wrecks all over the place.
 
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#16
Yeah we won't know for sure as the temps would be marginal at best from foothills to the Triangle (in NC and NW SC and possible even NGa) but it will either be Ice or rain, not seeing much chance of snow in these areas
 

metwannabe

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#19
Good thing is the H is on the move so no continuous steady feed of cold, dry air so the zr should be self limited..... still "damage" could be done by then in some areas. .25 seems like a real possibility for some of those areas now and that I believe is Warning criteria for most on here
 

ForsythSnow

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#21
Good thing is the H is on the move so no continuous steady feed of cold, dry air so the zr should be self limited..... still "damage" could be done by then in some areas. .25 seems like a real possibility for some of those areas now and that I believe is Warning criteria for most on here
It may be on the move, but it's tapping arctic air as it does, which is definitely going to make the CAD areas cold. How cold remains to be seen as the runs went colder at 12Z. If we keep seeing this, there are going to be some widespread issues.
 

metwannabe

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#22
It may be on the move, but it's tapping arctic air as it does, which is definitely going to make the CAD areas cold. How cold remains to be seen as the runs went colder at 12Z. If we keep seeing this, there are going to be some widespread issues.
I completely agree with this and I was just looking at DP's, they are low teens just prior to precip entering so I certainly see potential for temps to be a degree or two colder...
 

packfan98

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#29
It could be right but CMC always has the most ominous ice look in any situation imo.... I'd cut those totals in half but still I think the idea of a possible "more than just a nuisance" event is ramping up
Yeah, it just supports the slightly colder trend of the other models this morning. Nobody should trust that map verbatim.
 
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#30
Still several model runs until game time. This could turn ugly in a heartbeat the way temps are adjusting. We will all go over to rain at some point, but when? That is the question
 

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