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Wintry 2/3-2/4 Mixed Bag NC, SC, NE GA

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Potential In-situ CAD situation setting up.
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Could get dicey, we all know how models struggle with CAD especially a in-sut CAD, these can sometimes be "over performers". If ice is what you want bring it home... lol
 
metwannabe said:
Could get dicey, we all know how models struggle with CAD especially a in-sut CAD, these can sometimes be "over performers". If ice is what you want bring it home... lol
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If this over performs I hope it's more sleet than ZR.
 
12z RGEM is definitely colder than the 6z. Here's the last frame just as precip is moving in. Waiting on tropical tidbits to finish so we can compare to 6z at the same time.
sfct.us_ma.png

Dew points
sfctd.us_ma.png
 
Don't look now, 12z RGEM keeping upstate CAD favored areas below freezing at least until 12z Sunday (the end of the run) Major hit incoming
 
12Z Icon has 2m temps at freezing little further S/SW in Ga...has 32 degree line near the Gwinnett/DeKalb border, and into N Fulton.
Here is 2m with precip, remember TT doesn't have maps for IP/ZR.

45 pre.png 45 temp.png 48 pre.png 48 temp.png 51 pre.png 51 temp.png
54 pre.png 54 temps.png
 
StoneMtnWx said:
12Z Icon has 2m temps at freezing little further S/SW in Ga...has 32 degree line near the Gwinnett/DeKalb border, and into N Fulton.
Here is 2m with precip, remember TT doesn't have maps for IP/ZR.

View attachment 3697 View attachment 3698 View attachment 3699 View attachment 3700 View attachment 3701 View attachment 3702
View attachment 3703 View attachment 3704
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If temps remain a degree above freezing on the runs after some icy precipitation, they likely could be wrong and could verify at or below freezing given the CAD. Definitely have to watch this.
 
Looks like a little bit of an eastward trend with the frozen precip. Have to see if it continues further east.
 
FWIW: The RGEM has always had runs that go further than 48 on TT, it's just every now and again that it does. (I think 0z or 12z? or maybe the opposite lol)

GFS is a front end thump btw, which may have been an improvement from recently.
 
If the CAD gets any stronger than forecast by the NAM and RGEM could even get dicey as far east as the Triangle. Some appreciable ZR is becoming probable if not likely for the Triad the way we're going with this
 
Webberweather53 said:
If the CAD gets any stronger than forecast by the NAM and RGEM could even get dicey as far east as the Triangle. Some appreciable ZR is becoming probable if not likely for the Triad the way we're going with this
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I know that has happened before in the Triangle. I remember one time well when I was in 9th grade. It was just supposed to be rain in Durham, but it ended up being freezing rain, and I got stuck on the school bus that morning because the bus couldn't make it up a hill. A deputy sheriff had to take us home, and there were wrecks all over the place.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Don't look now, 12z RGEM keeping upstate CAD favored areas below freezing at least until 12z Sunday (the end of the run) Major hit incoming
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This could go from 0 to bad in a hurry! Luckily it's a weekend!
 
Yeah we won't know for sure as the temps would be marginal at best from foothills to the Triangle (in NC and NW SC and possible even NGa) but it will either be Ice or rain, not seeing much chance of snow in these areas
 
Good thing is the H is on the move so no continuous steady feed of cold, dry air so the zr should be self limited..... still "damage" could be done by then in some areas. .25 seems like a real possibility for some of those areas now and that I believe is Warning criteria for most on here
 
I think 0.25 of freezing rain is when you start to get damage to trees and power outages.
 
metwannabe said:
Good thing is the H is on the move so no continuous steady feed of cold, dry air so the zr should be self limited..... still "damage" could be done by then in some areas. .25 seems like a real possibility for some of those areas now and that I believe is Warning criteria for most on here
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It may be on the move, but it's tapping arctic air as it does, which is definitely going to make the CAD areas cold. How cold remains to be seen as the runs went colder at 12Z. If we keep seeing this, there are going to be some widespread issues.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It may be on the move, but it's tapping arctic air as it does, which is definitely going to make the CAD areas cold. How cold remains to be seen as the runs went colder at 12Z. If we keep seeing this, there are going to be some widespread issues.
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I completely agree with this and I was just looking at DP's, they are low teens just prior to precip entering so I certainly see potential for temps to be a degree or two colder...
 
packfan98 said:
Canadian looks to tick colder and more ominous:
zr_acc.us_ma.png
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It could be right but CMC always has the most ominous ice look in any situation imo.... I'd cut those totals in half but still I think the idea of a possible "more than just a nuisance" event is ramping up
 
metwannabe said:
It could be right but CMC always has the most ominous ice look in any situation imo.... I'd cut those totals in half but still I think the idea of a possible "more than just a nuisance" event is ramping up
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Yeah, it just supports the slightly colder trend of the other models this morning. Nobody should trust that map verbatim.
 
Still several model runs until game time. This could turn ugly in a heartbeat the way temps are adjusting. We will all go over to rain at some point, but when? That is the question
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Still several model runs until game time. This could turn ugly in a heartbeat the way temps are adjusting. We will all go over to rain at some point, but when? That is the question
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Not really sure yet. The winds look to stay out of the NE until Sunday evening across the CAD areas, so the cold will still be locked in. However, as soon as the winds start to come from a southern direction, it's going to warm up fast. Bad news is that it's going to be after a majority of the precip moves through. May have serious ice in areas if it changes late in the event versus early.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not really sure yet. The winds look to stay out of the NE until Sunday evening across the CAD areas, so the cold will still be locked in. However, as soon as the winds start to come from a southern direction, it's going to warm up fast. Bad news is that it's going to be after a majority of the precip moves through. May have serious ice in areas if it changes late in the event versus early.
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How do you feel for us ?
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
How do you feel for us ?
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Definitely keep an eye on this I'd say. However, if you are in the southern part of the county, it has a lower chance I think, but anything can happen if it's cold enough. FFC is mainly focused on N Forsyth N and E ward. The models suggest the entire county to the northeast part. As we get closer, it will become clearer who is getting ice and who isn't.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Definitely keep an eye on this I'd say. However, if you are in the southern part of the county, it has a lower chance I think, but anything can happen if it's cold enough. FFC is mainly focused on N Forsyth N and E ward. The models suggest the entire county to the northeast part. As we get closer, it will become clearer who is getting ice and who isn't.
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Perfect I’m in the NE
 
ForsythSnow said:
Definitely keep an eye on this I'd say. However, if you are in the southern part of the county, it has a lower chance I think, but anything can happen if it's cold enough. FFC is mainly focused on N Forsyth N and E ward. The models suggest the entire county to the northeast part. As we get closer, it will become clearer who is getting ice and who isn't.
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Last time there was ZR I think you said you lost power? We got hit but had the power flicker all night. The northern areas of the county definitely get more than where I am.
 
GaStorm said:
Last time there was ZR I think you said you lost power? We got hit but had the power flicker all night. The northern areas of the county definitely get more than where I am.
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Last icing was 2015 here, and we lost power for 45 minutes. Was short compared to the days it took for others to gain power. Had 0.3 or so then.
 
Losing power on Super Bowl Sunday will not make a lot of people happy with an ice storm
 
Anyone have Euro access? I'm curious if it trended a tick colder like the other modeling so far today?
 
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