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Wintry 2/3-2/4 Mixed Bag NC, SC, NE GA

Potential In-situ CAD situation setting up.
Could get dicey, we all know how models struggle with CAD especially a in-sut CAD, these can sometimes be "over performers". If ice is what you want bring it home... lol
 
12z RGEM is definitely colder than the 6z. Here's the last frame just as precip is moving in. Waiting on tropical tidbits to finish so we can compare to 6z at the same time.
sfct.us_ma.png

Dew points
sfctd.us_ma.png
 
Don't look now, 12z RGEM keeping upstate CAD favored areas below freezing at least until 12z Sunday (the end of the run) Major hit incoming
 
12Z Icon has 2m temps at freezing little further S/SW in Ga...has 32 degree line near the Gwinnett/DeKalb border, and into N Fulton.
Here is 2m with precip, remember TT doesn't have maps for IP/ZR.

45 pre.png 45 temp.png 48 pre.png 48 temp.png 51 pre.png 51 temp.png
54 pre.png 54 temps.png
 
12Z Icon has 2m temps at freezing little further S/SW in Ga...has 32 degree line near the Gwinnett/DeKalb border, and into N Fulton.
Here is 2m with precip, remember TT doesn't have maps for IP/ZR.

View attachment 3697 View attachment 3698 View attachment 3699 View attachment 3700 View attachment 3701 View attachment 3702
View attachment 3703 View attachment 3704
If temps remain a degree above freezing on the runs after some icy precipitation, they likely could be wrong and could verify at or below freezing given the CAD. Definitely have to watch this.
 
Looks like a little bit of an eastward trend with the frozen precip. Have to see if it continues further east.
 
FWIW: The RGEM has always had runs that go further than 48 on TT, it's just every now and again that it does. (I think 0z or 12z? or maybe the opposite lol)

GFS is a front end thump btw, which may have been an improvement from recently.
 
If the CAD gets any stronger than forecast by the NAM and RGEM could even get dicey as far east as the Triangle. Some appreciable ZR is becoming probable if not likely for the Triad the way we're going with this
I know that has happened before in the Triangle. I remember one time well when I was in 9th grade. It was just supposed to be rain in Durham, but it ended up being freezing rain, and I got stuck on the school bus that morning because the bus couldn't make it up a hill. A deputy sheriff had to take us home, and there were wrecks all over the place.
 
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Yeah we won't know for sure as the temps would be marginal at best from foothills to the Triangle (in NC and NW SC and possible even NGa) but it will either be Ice or rain, not seeing much chance of snow in these areas
 
Good thing is the H is on the move so no continuous steady feed of cold, dry air so the zr should be self limited..... still "damage" could be done by then in some areas. .25 seems like a real possibility for some of those areas now and that I believe is Warning criteria for most on here
 
I think 0.25 of freezing rain is when you start to get damage to trees and power outages.
 
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